Evaluating the impact and cost-effectiveness of scaling-up HCV treatment among people who inject drugs in Ukraine

Introduction People who inject drugs (PWID) in Ukraine have a high prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Since 2015, PWID have been receiving HCV treatment, but their impact and cost-effectiveness has not been estimated. Methods We developed a dynamic model of HIV and HCV transmission among PWID in Ukraine, incorporating ongoing HCV treatment (5,933 treatments) over 2015–2021; 46.1% among current PWID. We estimated the impact of these treatments and different treatment scenarios over 2021-2030: continuing recent treatment rates (2,394 PWID/year) with 42.5/100% among current PWID, or treating 5,000/10,000 current PWID/year. We also estimated the treatment rate required to decrease HCV incidence by 80% if preventative interventions are scaled-up or not. Required costs were collated from previous studies in Ukraine. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the HCV treatments undertaken in 2020 (1,059) by projecting the incremental costs and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted over 2020-2070 (3% discount rate) compared to a counterfactual scenario without treatment from 2020 onwards. Results On average, 0.4% of infections among PWID were treated annually over 2015-2021, without which HCV incidence would have been 0.6% (95%CrI: 0.3-1.0%) higher in 2021. Continuing existing treatment rates could reduce HCV incidence by 10.2% (7.8-12.5%) or 16.4% (12.1-22.0%) by 2030 if 42.5% or 100% of treatments are given to current PWID, respectively. HCV incidence could reduce by 29.3% (20.7-44.7%) or 93.9% (54.3-99.9%) by 2030 if 5,000 or 10,000 PWID are treated annually. To reduce incidence by 80% by 2030, 19,275 (15,134-23,522) annual treatments are needed among current PWID, or 17,955 (14,052-21,954) if preventative interventions are scaled-up. The mean ICER was US$828.8/DALY averted; cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$3,096/DALY averted (1xGDP). Implications Existing HCV treatment is cost-effective but has had little preventative impact due to few current PWID being treated. Further treatment expansion for current PWID could significantly reduce HCV incidence.