Dynamic State Transition Model-based Prognosis Approach for Degradation Prediction of Aerial Bundled Cables

Dynamic State Transition Model-based Prognosis Approach for Degradation Prediction of Aerial Bundled Cables | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Dynamic State Transition Model-based Prognosis Approach for Degradation Prediction of Aerial Bundled Cables Muhammad Hassam Shakil Siddiqui, Waleed Bin Yousuf, Abdul Ahad Abro, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6738017/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Aerial Bundled Cables (ABCs) comprise multiple insulated phase conductors. As different cables are bundled together using a main insulation, the moisture penetrates within the insulation, resulting in degradation initiation when subjected to different loading conditions. Sophisticated degradation prediction techniques based on the current health state of the insulation are required to enable timely maintenance action, leading to failure prevention. This insulation degradation with respect. Time is observed by acquiring thermal images from the installed cables, and the corresponding thermal degradation parameters (TDP) are determined at each measuring instant. A particle filter (PF) based Bayesian framework is used in the proposed study to predict the TDP for future instants. In PF, state transition models play an important role in future predictions. The selection of the state transition model is critical; as different models represent different degradation rates during ABC’s life cycle. Therefore, our paper uses a Weibull distribution-based dynamic state transition model within the proposed framework. Weibull distribution's shape parameter is estimated using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method using historical data at each prediction step. A comparison of prediction accuracy between a prognosis framework based on single (constant) prediction density and dynamic prediction density is also presented in the proposed work. However, our proposed model indicates that the TDP can be predicted with an average accuracy of 0.013, 0.0281 & 0.042 oC/A when using one, two & three-step predictions, respectively. Physical sciences/Engineering/Energy infrastructure Physical sciences/Engineering/Energy infrastructure/Energy grids and networks Physical sciences/Engineering/Energy infrastructure/Power distribution Physical sciences/Engineering/Energy infrastructure/Power stations Degradation Assessment Prediction Algorithm Predictive Maintenance RUL estimation Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 09 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 27 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 18 Nov, 2025 Reviews received at journal 25 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 13 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 11 Jul, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 09 Jun, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 09 Jun, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 09 Jun, 2025 Editor invited by journal 05 Jun, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 04 Jun, 2025 First submitted to journal 24 May, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6738017","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":469374762,"identity":"8f8d003f-085d-4826-99ee-6761ef4977cf","order_by":0,"name":"Muhammad Hassam Shakil Siddiqui","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Iqra University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Muhammad","middleName":"Hassam Shakil","lastName":"Siddiqui","suffix":""},{"id":469374763,"identity":"51573456-175d-4d74-abcb-70c73b6dc0fd","order_by":1,"name":"Waleed Bin Yousuf","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Iqra 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As different cables are bundled together using a main insulation, the moisture penetrates within the insulation, resulting in degradation initiation when subjected to different loading conditions. Sophisticated degradation prediction techniques based on the current health state of the insulation are required to enable timely maintenance action, leading to failure prevention. This insulation degradation with respect. Time is observed by acquiring thermal images from the installed cables, and the corresponding thermal degradation parameters (TDP) are determined at each measuring instant. A particle filter (PF) based Bayesian framework is used in the proposed study to predict the TDP for future instants. In PF, state transition models play an important role in future predictions. The selection of the state transition model is critical; as different models represent different degradation rates during ABC\u0026rsquo;s life cycle. Therefore, our paper uses a Weibull distribution-based dynamic state transition model within the proposed framework. Weibull distribution's shape parameter is estimated using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method using historical data at each prediction step. A comparison of prediction accuracy between a prognosis framework based on single (constant) prediction density and dynamic prediction density is also presented in the proposed work. However, our proposed model indicates that the TDP can be predicted with an average accuracy of 0.013, 0.0281 \u0026amp; 0.042 oC/A when using one, two \u0026amp; three-step predictions, respectively.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Dynamic State Transition Model-based Prognosis Approach for Degradation Prediction of Aerial Bundled Cables","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-06-11 08:09:29","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6738017/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-12-09T05:56:27+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-11-27T14:29:55+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"310019111217447240948787453004049185224","date":"2025-11-18T09:32:13+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-10-25T11:55:13+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"309795358901980184565081356703582375449","date":"2025-10-14T01:24:17+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"201663567779294855785522336685535456773","date":"2025-07-11T13:04:58+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"209818400389350475067508245370945470482","date":"2025-06-09T08:58:49+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-06-09T05:00:04+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-06-09T04:57:21+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2025-06-05T18:32:27+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-06-05T03:36:52+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Scientific Reports","date":"2025-05-24T08:57:55+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"fd8245e1-3851-4a5f-aec6-7a4299b04f7e","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 11th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":49835781,"name":"Physical sciences/Engineering/Energy infrastructure"},{"id":49835782,"name":"Physical sciences/Engineering/Energy infrastructure/Energy grids and networks"},{"id":49835783,"name":"Physical sciences/Engineering/Energy infrastructure/Power distribution"},{"id":49835784,"name":"Physical sciences/Engineering/Energy infrastructure/Power stations"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-03-10T02:53:27+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-06-11 08:09:29","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6738017","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6738017","identity":"rs-6738017","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}