Increasing risk of dam failures in the United States due to compound risk of rainfall clusters as climate changes

Increasing risk of dam failures in the United States due to compound risk of rainfall clusters as climate changes | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Increasing risk of dam failures in the United States due to compound risk of rainfall clusters as climate changes Jeongwoo Hwang, Upmanu Lall This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3941703/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract A changing climate, with intensifying precipitation may contribute to increasing failures of dams by overtopping. We present the first analysis of rainfall sequences and events associated with recent hydrologic failures of 630 dams in the United States. We find that the maximum one-day rainfall associated with failure was often not extreme compared to dam spillway design criteria, even when accounting for rainfall statistics changing with time at each site. However, the combination of the total rainfall 5 to 30 days prior and the maximum one-day rainfall associated with dam failure is rare. Persistent atmospheric circulation patterns that lead to recurrent rainfall events, rather than just more moisture in the atmosphere is a possible reason. The probability of these compound precipitation risks has increased across much of the country. With over 90,000 aging dams still in service, the increasing likelihood of intense rainfall sequences raises concerns about future dam failures. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate change impacts Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Hydrology Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files agingdamSupp.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 22 Apr, 2024 Reviews received at journal 12 Apr, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 10 Mar, 2024 Reviews received at journal 18 Feb, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Feb, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 15 Feb, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 09 Feb, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 09 Feb, 2024 First submitted to journal 08 Feb, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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