Networked Trends and Mathematical Modelling of Intimate Partner Violence in Canada: A Decade of Empirical Evidence (2014–2023)

Networked Trends and Mathematical Modelling of Intimate Partner Violence in Canada: A Decade of Empirical Evidence (2014–2023) | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Networked Trends and Mathematical Modelling of Intimate Partner Violence in Canada: A Decade of Empirical Evidence (2014–2023) Abhinav Singh This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6941103/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Objectives This study examines how intimate partner violence (IPV) in Canada has evolved from 2014 to 2023, with a focus on demographic, geographic, and relational factors. By integrating the police-reported incidents with self-reported survey data, we explored where and among whom IPV is most concentrated. We also focused on the ongoing issue of underreported male victimisation along with the increased vulnerability of young adults and individuals residing in the rural and the northern provincial communities. Methods We analysed the data from two national sources: the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Survey and the General Social Survey (GSS) on victimisation. Incidence rates were standardised across the age, gender, and region using mid-year population estimates. To move beyond the basic case counts, we applied the conditional probability models and relational network analysis, which allowed us to trace how IPV is patterned by relationship type and social context. Results Women aged between 25 and 34 experienced the highest police-reported IPV rates in 2023 (712 per 100,000), while men in the same group reported 377 per 100,000. Rates were especially high in the rural and remote regions, with territories like Nunavut reporting the highest incidence rates. Most cases involved current or former partners, and self-reported surveys also revealed a notable gap in male victim representation in police records. Network analysis showed IPV clustering around particular relationship types, especially post-separation. Conclusions The findings point out substantial variation in IPV risk across Canada. Uniform prevention strategies risk overlooking groups that are most affected—such as young adults, rural residents, and male survivors. Closing the gap between institutional data and real experience is essential for improving both outreach and support. Intimate Partner Violence (IPV) Relational Network Analysis Criminological Data Modelling Victimisation Patterns Geographic Disparities Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6941103","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":474257873,"identity":"99839e48-8d2d-4646-8024-d0e947648aa9","order_by":0,"name":"Abhinav Singh","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABFklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCR6GAyCaDYwKGBj4QbyEAqK1GDAwSDaAtBjg1wIDEC0GYBPwaOGf3XvwcEHNYXs+6fZrDxgM7BI3n1+d+OGBAYM8v9gB7JbcOZdweMaxw4ltMmfKDRgMkhO33Xi7WQLoMMOZsxOwW3Mjx+AwD1taAptETpoEgwFz7rYbZzeAtCQY3MauRR6s5V+aPVRLfe7mGWc3/8CnxQCkhbfNhrFNIv0YUMvh3A38vdvw2mJ45wxQS59NYptEDhtQ5fH6GTd4t1kkGEjg9Ivc7R7jzzzfJOzlZ6Q/k/hQUW3M3392880fFTby/NI4vI8APEDHgGgJCElIOQiwP4DQ/AeIUT0KRsEoGAUjCAAA6zpfJ0+p/bgAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0003-9089-3518","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Abhinav","middleName":"","lastName":"Singh","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-20 18:40:33","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":true,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":true},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6941103/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6941103/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":85219769,"identity":"1ea7cfc6-618f-47f2-b7b9-6843e3f6d609","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-23 13:57:43","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":533404,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SubmittedCriminologyFinalcopy.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6941103/v1_covered_4daa3384-9cbb-4c21-82f8-5827fb879e31.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eNetworked Trends and Mathematical Modelling of Intimate Partner Violence in Canada: A Decade of Empirical Evidence (2014–2023)\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Intimate Partner Violence (IPV), Relational Network Analysis, Criminological Data Modelling, Victimisation Patterns, Geographic Disparities","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6941103/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6941103/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003ch2\u003eObjectives\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis study examines how intimate partner violence (IPV) in Canada has evolved from 2014 to 2023, with a focus on demographic, geographic, and relational factors. By integrating the police-reported incidents with self-reported survey data, we explored where and among whom IPV is most concentrated. We also focused on the ongoing issue of underreported male victimisation along with the increased vulnerability of young adults and individuals residing in the rural and the northern provincial communities.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eMethods\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eWe analysed the data from two national sources: the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Survey and the General Social Survey (GSS) on victimisation. Incidence rates were standardised across the age, gender, and region using mid-year population estimates. To move beyond the basic case counts, we applied the conditional probability models and relational network analysis, which allowed us to trace how IPV is patterned by relationship type and social context.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eResults\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eWomen aged between 25 and 34 experienced the highest police-reported IPV rates in 2023 (712 per 100,000), while men in the same group reported 377 per 100,000. Rates were especially high in the rural and remote regions, with territories like Nunavut reporting the highest incidence rates. Most cases involved current or former partners, and self-reported surveys also revealed a notable gap in male victim representation in police records. Network analysis showed IPV clustering around particular relationship types, especially post-separation.\u003c/p\u003e\u003ch2\u003eConclusions\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe findings point out substantial variation in IPV risk across Canada. Uniform prevention strategies risk overlooking groups that are most affected\u0026mdash;such as young adults, rural residents, and male survivors. Closing the gap between institutional data and real experience is essential for improving both outreach and support.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Networked Trends and Mathematical Modelling of Intimate Partner Violence in Canada: A Decade of Empirical Evidence (2014–2023)","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-06-23 13:25:38","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6941103/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":2}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"9fb7d124-3ed9-4d15-b901-91609b2332b0","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 23rd, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-06-23T13:25:38+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-06-23 13:25:38","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6941103","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6941103","identity":"rs-6941103","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}