Long-term trends in IRI-2016 and IRI-2020 models and total electron content (TEC) variations with their ANNs-based predictions at low latitudes during Solar Cycle 24 (2010-2020)

Long-term trends in IRI-2016 and IRI-2020 models and total electron content (TEC) variations with their ANNs-based predictions at low latitudes during Solar Cycle 24 (2010-2020) | Authorea try { document.documentElement.classList.add('js'); } catch (e) { } var _gaq = _gaq || []; _gaq.push(['_setAccount', 'G-8VDV14Y67G']); _gaq.push(['_trackPageview']); (function() { var ga = document.createElement('script'); ga.type = 'text/javascript'; ga.async = true; ga.src = ('https:' == document.location.protocol ? 'https://ssl' : 'http://www') + '.google-analytics.com/ga.js'; var s = document.getElementsByTagName('script')[0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore(ga, s); })(); Skip to main content Preprints Collections Wiley Open Research IET Open Research Ecological Society of Japan All Collections About About Authorea FAQs Contact Us Quick Search anywhere Search for preprint articles, keywords, etc. Search Search ADVANCED SEARCH SCROLL This is a preprint and has not been peer reviewed. Data may be preliminary. 15 April 2025 V1 Latest version Share on Long-term trends in IRI-2016 and IRI-2020 models and total electron content (TEC) variations with their ANNs-based predictions at low latitudes during Solar Cycle 24 (2010-2020) Authors : Nitin Dubey , Swati . , Sparsh Agarwal , DEVBRAT PUNDHIR 0000-0002-1027-7420 [email protected] , and Dhananjali Singh Authors Info & Affiliations https://doi.org/10.22541/au.174475395.56159428/v1 248 views 131 downloads Contents Abstract Supplementary Material Information & Authors Metrics & Citations View Options References Figures Tables Media Share Abstract A prolonged period of TEC data was observed at 5 IGS stations, alongside recent IRI models (2016 and 2020) analyzed from 2010 to 2020, encompassing the entire Solar Cycle 24. The data were processed using well-established statistical techniques during various periods of solar activity, including diurnal and seasonal variations. The IRI models exhibited similar variations, as indicated by a high correlation coefficient (> 0.92), except at LCK, where the correlation coefficient ranged from approximately 0.31 to 0.42 for IRI 2020. A significant correlation was found between space weather activity parameters (Solar Flux F10.7 and Sunspot Numbers) and TEC variations, indicating a strong association (ranging from 0.83 to 0.99) and a moderate association (≈ 0.6 for LCK) with solar activity. A moderate correlation (≈ -0.5 and 0.55) between observed TEC and geomagnetic activity parameters (Dst and ∑Kp indices) was identified, with a negative correlation found for the Dst index. In some cases, lower correlations (≈ 0.3) were observed with geomagnetic activity. Neural Network Entropy (NNetE) was calculated to assess the chaotic behavior of the TEC data, revealing that equinox data is more chaotic than data from other seasons. The observed TEC results were compared with the predicted TEC from the ANNs and IRI models using the root mean square deviation (RMSD) model, which indicated low values (≈ 0.08 to 2) and showed that the variations of IRI models and predicted TEC by ANNs closely resemble the observed TEC with over and underestimations at all stations except at LCK. Supplementary Material File (1. manuscript_complete_15.04.2025.docx) Download 3.17 MB File (1030889_0_merged_1744688513.pdf) Download 2.29 MB Information & Authors Information Version history V1 Version 1 15 April 2025 Copyright This work is licensed under a Non Exclusive No Reuse License. Keywords anns entropy environmental sciences iri-models rmsd solar system physics tec Authors Affiliations Nitin Dubey Department of Physics, Raja Balwant Singh Engineering Technical Campus, View all articles by this author Swati . Department of Physical Sciences, Banasthali Vidyapith View all articles by this author Sparsh Agarwal Dept. of ECE, Raja Balwant Singh Engineering Technical Campus View all articles by this author DEVBRAT PUNDHIR 0000-0002-1027-7420 [email protected] Raja Balwant Singh Engineering Technical Campus View all articles by this author Dhananjali Singh Dept. of ECE, Raja Balwant Singh Engineering Technical Campus View all articles by this author Funding Information Council of Science and Technology, U.P. CST/D-136 Dr. Devbrat Pundhir Metrics & Citations Metrics Article Usage 248 views 131 downloads .FvxKWukQNSOunydq8rnd { width: 100px; } Citations Download citation Nitin Dubey, Swati ., Sparsh Agarwal, et al. Long-term trends in IRI-2016 and IRI-2020 models and total electron content (TEC) variations with their ANNs-based predictions at low latitudes during Solar Cycle 24 (2010-2020). Authorea . 15 April 2025. 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