Trends and age-period-cohort effect on mortality of cerebrovascular diseases from 2005 to 2019 in urban and rural areas of China

Trends and age-period-cohort effect on mortality of cerebrovascular diseases from 2005 to 2019 in urban and rural areas of China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Trends and age-period-cohort effect on mortality of cerebrovascular diseases from 2005 to 2019 in urban and rural areas of China Qing Zeng, Binbin Wang, Xinyan Lai, Jiangnan Tian, Yulong Yang, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1542951/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background: Cerebrovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in China, and the China is undergoing rapid change.However, trends in cerebrovascular disease mortality remains unclear in urban-rural China. Methods: Mortality of cerebrovascular disease (2005-2019) were collected for quinquennial age group stratified by area(urban/rural) from China Statistical Yearbook.The annual changes(APC) and the average annual percent changes(AAPC) of cerebrovascular disease mortality were analyzed by joinpoint regression analysis;age,period,cohort effects on mortality were estimated by age-period-cohort model. Results: Though 2005-2019,standardized mortality significantly rose in rural areas(AAPC=3.3%,95%CI:1%,5.6%) and moderately increased in urban areas(AAPC=1.5%,95%CI:0.6%,2.4%).The age-period-cohort model indicated that there was an obviously age effect and cohort effect..The trend of age effect showed an increase with advancing age.There is a favourable throughout in cohort effects with significantly decrease of both rural and urban areas in China. Conclusions: Both urban areas and rural areas of China,the trend of cerebrovascular disease mortality substantially increased with advance of age.Cerebrovascular disease mortality trend may continue to rise in China.Respectively intervention should be conducted, especially for rural areas.Moreover,paying attention to the physical and mental health of the elderly is also unavoidable. age-period-cohort model mortality cerebrovascular disease joinpoint regression analysis Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-1542951","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":98474911,"identity":"0379cd22-9f2d-48bb-8ffc-6899f3ad7a20","order_by":0,"name":"Qing Zeng","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAwUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACNmbGhoMfftjAuERo4WNvPnhYsieNBC1yPMeSD/CwHSZBC5tEjsEBCZ7z8nzXzhgwfCg7zMA/u4EILQUWtw1n3s4xYJxx7jCDxJ0DRNlyO8EAqIWZt+0wg4FEAhFaeNjOQbT8JUoLz7EEoJYDEC2MRGlhbz4ADORkoF/SCg72nEvnkbhBQIt8M2Pzxw8/7OT5bidvfPCjzFqOfwYBLQhwAIwYeIhVD9EyCkbBKBgFowArAAD3G0TMlZHgyAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Chongqing Medical University","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Qing","middleName":"","lastName":"Zeng","suffix":""},{"id":98474910,"identity":"736fa83b-5646-444c-9446-ebeedd73d937","order_by":1,"name":"Binbin Wang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Chongqing Medical University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Binbin","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":98474913,"identity":"d13848e5-3307-491e-925c-7620813b1d26","order_by":2,"name":"Xinyan Lai","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Chongqing Medical University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xinyan","middleName":"","lastName":"Lai","suffix":""},{"id":98474914,"identity":"b873068d-5491-4323-8929-00cbbe915a8f","order_by":3,"name":"Jiangnan Tian","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Chongqing Medical University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jiangnan","middleName":"","lastName":"Tian","suffix":""},{"id":98474916,"identity":"d6b38fa1-5025-4f31-a3e2-fa9abf6b6500","order_by":4,"name":"Yulong Yang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Chongqing Medical University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yulong","middleName":"","lastName":"Yang","suffix":""},{"id":98474918,"identity":"b18c2cdb-de73-4c69-b215-6711e78031fb","order_by":5,"name":"Danyi Mao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Chongqing Medical University","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Danyi","middleName":"","lastName":"Mao","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2022-04-10 13:29:14","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-1542951/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1542951/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":20471129,"identity":"8e9ef978-6562-4e3a-af91-afc3455210e4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2022-04-18 19:16:34","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":544599,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"APCMODEL.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-1542951/v1_covered.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Trends and age-period-cohort effect on mortality of cerebrovascular diseases from 2005 to 2019 in urban and rural areas of China","fulltext":[{"header":"Full Text","content":"This preprint is available for \u003ca href='/article/rs-1542951/latest.pdf' target='_blank'\u003edownload as a PDF\u003c/a\u003e."}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"age-period-cohort model,mortality,cerebrovascular disease ,joinpoint regression analysis","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-1542951/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1542951/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eBackground:\u003c/strong\u003eCerebrovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in China, and the China is undergoing rapid change.However, trends in cerebrovascular disease mortality remains unclear in urban-rural China.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMethods:\u003c/strong\u003eMortality of cerebrovascular disease (2005-2019) were collected for quinquennial age group stratified by area(urban/rural) from China Statistical Yearbook.The annual changes(APC) and the average annual percent changes(AAPC) of cerebrovascular disease mortality were analyzed by joinpoint regression analysis;age,period,cohort effects on mortality were estimated by age-period-cohort model.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eResults:\u003c/strong\u003eThough 2005-2019,standardized mortality significantly rose in rural areas(AAPC=3.3%,95%CI:1%,5.6%) and moderately increased in urban areas(AAPC=1.5%,95%CI:0.6%,2.4%).The age-period-cohort model indicated that there was an obviously age effect and cohort effect..The trend of age effect showed an increase with advancing age.There is a favourable throughout in cohort effects with significantly decrease of both rural and urban areas in China.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConclusions:\u003c/strong\u003eBoth urban areas and rural areas of China,the trend of cerebrovascular disease mortality substantially increased with advance of age.Cerebrovascular disease mortality trend may continue to rise in China.Respectively intervention should be conducted, especially for rural areas.Moreover,paying attention to the physical and mental health of the elderly is also unavoidable.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Trends and age-period-cohort effect on mortality of cerebrovascular diseases from 2005 to 2019 in urban and rural areas of China","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2022-04-18 19:16:27","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-1542951/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"cf7bc963-c971-4f2b-ade7-16d0649424b8","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 18th, 2022","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2022-04-18T19:16:28+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2022-04-18 19:16:27","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-1542951","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-1542951","identity":"rs-1542951","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"WrCJVZZCHTDjtuVLN7oU0","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}