Can green scenarios improve water ecosystem services and mitigate the effects of climate change? A case study in a river basin in southeastern Brazil

Can green scenarios improve water ecosystem services and mitigate the effects of climate change? A case study in a river basin in southeastern Brazil | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Can green scenarios improve water ecosystem services and mitigate the effects of climate change? A case study in a river basin in southeastern Brazil Phelipe da Silva Anjinho, Angeliki Peponi, Gonçalo Duarte, Paulo Branco, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6864184/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 18 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Environmental Management → Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Recent studies suggest that ecological restoration can enhance ecosystem services and mitigate the climate crisis, though research on these interventions' effectiveness, especially in restoring native vegetation, remains limited. This study evaluates the effects of different climate scenarios, called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (RCP 4.5 2040–2069, RCP 4.5 2070–2099, RCP 8.5 2040–2069, and RCP 8.5 2070–2099), and land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios (economic, trend, and green) on water ecosystem services (WES) in a southeastern Brazil river basin. These scenarios were compared to the baseline (2019 land use data). The main objective was to determine whether green scenarios, based on native vegetation reintroduction, could enhance WES while mitigating climate change effects. Climate and biophysical models from the InVEST package simulated these scenarios' effects on sediment export and retention (erosion control service), total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) export and retention (water purification service), and quickflow (QF) and baseflow (BF) (water supply). Results indicated that climate change mainly impacted water supply services, while LULC changes more significantly affected water purification and erosion control. The green scenario, combined with climate scenarios, significantly reduced sediment and nutrient exports while mitigating the effects of climate change on water supply. This study's methodology effectively shows how climate and LULC changes influence WES, suggesting that increasing green areas can improve WES and mitigate future climate change effects. native vegetation restoration land use planning natural climate solutions water management hydrological modeling Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 18 Feb, 2026 Read the published version in Environmental Management → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 16 Sep, 2025 Reviews received at journal 14 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 25 Aug, 2025 Reviews received at journal 06 Aug, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 18 Jul, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 18 Jul, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 23 Jun, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 18 Jun, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 13 Jun, 2025 First submitted to journal 10 Jun, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6864184","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":475358004,"identity":"a6d17b1d-dfb3-4f1f-85d1-ecea6f094210","order_by":0,"name":"Phelipe da Silva Anjinho","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Department of Environmental Sciences, Federal University of São Carlos","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Phelipe","middleName":"da Silva","lastName":"Anjinho","suffix":""},{"id":475358007,"identity":"5a857510-7891-4260-8a45-40a9e113694e","order_by":1,"name":"Angeliki Peponi","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA9klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBADHn4GBgMgbcHDIEGsFskGsBYJmBYDwnoMDkC0MBDUwt/Ae/BxQcUdGePjzdskGNskZORnNx/8wLjjD04tEgf4ko1nnHnGY3bmWBlIC4/BnWPJEoxn8DjsAI+ZNG/bYR6zGzlmEC0SOQZABm4t8gd4zH+DtBjPfwPRIj8jx/gHPi0GQFuYQVoMJHggWhgg1uHWYniYL1l6xpnDPBJn0ootEs6B/ZJmkXjGGKcWueO9Bz8XVBy2528/vPHGhzIbe2CIHb7xcYccbu8z8zAwwzkJMEZiA24dwHhH0gIHjHi1jIJRMApGwQgDAKelSnuJJdQFAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Forest Research Centre, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Angeliki","middleName":"","lastName":"Peponi","suffix":""},{"id":475358009,"identity":"584e61af-252d-465f-be66-c89f8d50b275","order_by":2,"name":"Gonçalo Duarte","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Forest Research Centre, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Gonçalo","middleName":"","lastName":"Duarte","suffix":""},{"id":475358010,"identity":"00fc64fd-54ae-45cc-8ad3-ab418daedf02","order_by":3,"name":"Paulo Branco","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Forest Research Centre, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Paulo","middleName":"","lastName":"Branco","suffix":""},{"id":475358012,"identity":"6549788d-2b1b-4210-9bf7-d2b9f8b4c253","order_by":4,"name":"Maria Teresa Ferreira","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Forest Research Centre, Associate Laboratory TERRA, School of Agriculture, University of Lisbon","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Maria","middleName":"Teresa","lastName":"Ferreira","suffix":""},{"id":475358018,"identity":"e54fad9e-2e4d-4cae-8d4d-e750691d8def","order_by":5,"name":"Frederico Fabio Mauad","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Department of Hydraulics and Sanitation, School of Engineering of Sao Carlos (EESC / USP), University of Sao Paulo","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Frederico","middleName":"Fabio","lastName":"Mauad","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-10 14:38:27","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6864184/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6864184/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-026-02395-3","type":"published","date":"2026-02-18T15:59:12+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":103251996,"identity":"36d22678-bc30-4a8b-af26-bf5dcfc4fba5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-23 16:12:31","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1493224,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6864184/v1_covered_961ef23f-0adc-496a-ac3d-ee21261dc4e7.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Can green scenarios improve water ecosystem services and mitigate the effects of climate change? A case study in a river basin in southeastern Brazil","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"environmental-management","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"emvm","sideBox":"Learn more about [Environmental Management](http://link.springer.com/journal/267)","snPcode":"267","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/267/3","title":"Environmental Management","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"native vegetation restoration, land use planning, natural climate solutions, water management, hydrological modeling","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6864184/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6864184/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eRecent studies suggest that ecological restoration can enhance ecosystem services and mitigate the climate crisis, though research on these interventions' effectiveness, especially in restoring native vegetation, remains limited. This study evaluates the effects of different climate scenarios, called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) (RCP 4.5 2040\u0026ndash;2069, RCP 4.5 2070\u0026ndash;2099, RCP 8.5 2040\u0026ndash;2069, and RCP 8.5 2070\u0026ndash;2099), and land use and land cover (LULC) scenarios (economic, trend, and green) on water ecosystem services (WES) in a southeastern Brazil river basin. These scenarios were compared to the baseline (2019 land use data). The main objective was to determine whether green scenarios, based on native vegetation reintroduction, could enhance WES while mitigating climate change effects. Climate and biophysical models from the InVEST package simulated these scenarios' effects on sediment export and retention (erosion control service), total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) export and retention (water purification service), and quickflow (QF) and baseflow (BF) (water supply). Results indicated that climate change mainly impacted water supply services, while LULC changes more significantly affected water purification and erosion control. The green scenario, combined with climate scenarios, significantly reduced sediment and nutrient exports while mitigating the effects of climate change on water supply. This study's methodology effectively shows how climate and LULC changes influence WES, suggesting that increasing green areas can improve WES and mitigate future climate change effects.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Can green scenarios improve water ecosystem services and mitigate the effects of climate change? A case study in a river basin in southeastern Brazil","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-06-25 03:07:41","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6864184/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-09-17T01:17:53+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-09-15T00:43:59+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"159642362756875282019482232684918146825","date":"2025-08-25T14:33:03+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-08-07T03:22:15+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"225413982899890290247657574358921356043","date":"2025-07-18T08:27:40+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"334761725842534736947791967585174472341","date":"2025-07-18T06:23:56+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-06-23T18:44:02+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-06-19T01:45:32+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-06-13T04:06:27+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Environmental Management","date":"2025-06-10T14:30:16+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"environmental-management","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"emvm","sideBox":"Learn more about [Environmental Management](http://link.springer.com/journal/267)","snPcode":"267","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/267/3","title":"Environmental Management","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"9b8cf211-6862-4d99-b952-f7d9d7f52013","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 25th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-02-23T16:07:30+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-6864184","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-026-02395-3","journal":{"identity":"environmental-management","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Environmental Management"},"publishedOn":"2026-02-18 15:59:12","publishedOnDateReadable":"February 18th, 2026"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-06-25 03:07:41","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s00267-026-02395-3","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s00267-026-02395-3","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6864184","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6864184","identity":"rs-6864184","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}