Probabilistic hazard assessment for pyroclastic density currents at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador

Probabilistic hazard assessment for pyroclastic density currents at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Probabilistic hazard assessment for pyroclastic density currents at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador Alvaro Aravena, Alessandro Tadini, Andrea Bevilacqua, Pablo Samaniego, and 6 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4076583/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 23 Sep, 2024 Read the published version in Bulletin of Volcanology → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract We assess the volcanic hazard derived from pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador, using a probabilistic approach based on the analysis of calibrated numerical simulations. We address the expected variability of explosive eruptions at Tungurahua volcano by adopting a scenario-based strategy, where we consider three cases: small magnitude violent Strombolian to Vulcanian eruption (VEI 2), intermediate magnitude sub-Plinian eruption (VEI 3), and large magnitude sub-Plinian to Plinian eruption (VEI 4–5). PDCs are modeled using the branching energy cone model and the branching box model, considering reproducible calibration procedures based on the geological record of Tungurahua volcano. The use of different calibration procedures and reference PDC deposits allows us to define uncertainty ranges for the inundation probability of each scenario. Numerical results indicate that PDCs at Tungurahua volcano propagate preferentially toward W and NW, where a series of catchment ravines can be recognized. Two additional valleys of channelization are observed in the N and NE flanks of the volcano, which may affect the city of Baños. The mean inundation probability calculated for Baños is small (6 ± 3%) for PDCs similar to those emplaced during the VEI 2 eruptions of July 2006, February 2008, May 2010, July 2013, February 2014 and February 2016, and on the order of 13 ± 4% for a PDC similar to that produced during the sub-Plinian phase of the August 2006 eruption (VEI 3). The highest energy scenario (VEI 4–5), for which we present and implement a novel calibration procedure based on a few control points, produces inundation areas that nearly always include inhabited centers such as Baños, Puela and Cotaló, among others. This calibration method is well suited for eruptive scenarios that lack detailed field information, and could be replicated for poorly-known active volcanoes around the world. Full Text Supplementary Files SITungurahua202403.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 23 Sep, 2024 Read the published version in Bulletin of Volcanology → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Moderate revision (possibly re-reviewed) 30 Jun, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 Apr, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 27 Mar, 2024 Editor invited by journal 26 Mar, 2024 First submitted to journal 11 Mar, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4076583","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":284593355,"identity":"5a8b9454-781d-4b32-8591-e78edb608f42","order_by":0,"name":"Alvaro 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The mean inundation probability calculated for Ba\u0026ntilde;os is small (6\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;3%) for PDCs similar to those emplaced during the VEI 2 eruptions of July 2006, February 2008, May 2010, July 2013, February 2014 and February 2016, and on the order of 13\u0026thinsp;\u0026plusmn;\u0026thinsp;4% for a PDC similar to that produced during the sub-Plinian phase of the August 2006 eruption (VEI 3). The highest energy scenario (VEI 4\u0026ndash;5), for which we present and implement a novel calibration procedure based on a few control points, produces inundation areas that nearly always include inhabited centers such as Ba\u0026ntilde;os, Puela and Cotal\u0026oacute;, among others. 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