Long-Term Impacts of Land Use Changes on Lake Eutrophication: A Remote Sensing-Based Analysis of Baiyangdian Lake (1988–2022)

Long-Term Impacts of Land Use Changes on Lake Eutrophication: A Remote Sensing-Based Analysis of Baiyangdian Lake (1988–2022) | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Long-Term Impacts of Land Use Changes on Lake Eutrophication: A Remote Sensing-Based Analysis of Baiyangdian Lake (1988–2022) Xu Cui, Ziming Wang, Lihu Yang, Xianfang Song, Dongxu Yao This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7156939/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract As a critical freshwater resource for the Xiong'an New Area, Baiyangdian Lake plays a vital role in regional water security and ecosystem stability. This study presents a comprehensive 34-year (1988–2022) assessment of eutrophication dynamics using an integrated approach combining Landsat imagery and in situ water quality monitoring. We developed robust random forest regression models (R² = 0.72–0.85) to retrieve chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations, enabling high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis. Our results reveal divergent nutrient trends: while TP showed a significant decline (2.05×10⁻⁴ mg·L⁻¹·yr⁻¹, p < 0.01) concurrent with Chl-a reductions (0.12 µg·L⁻¹·yr⁻¹), TN exhibited a concerning increase (1.55×10⁻⁴ mg·L⁻¹·yr⁻¹). Partial least squares regression analysis identified watershed land-use changes as primary drivers, with three key findings: (1) Agricultural runoff contributed 42–58% of TP loading, with landscape fragmentation exacerbating phosphorus transport; (2) Ecological water transfers unexpectedly accounted for 31% of TN inputs through sediment resuspension; (3) Despite increasing anthropogenic pressure, environmental management measures effectively reduced the trophic level index (TLI) by 0.67 per decade. Spatial analysis highlighted hotspots near urban and agricultural areas, demonstrating the compound impacts of cropland expansion (18.7% increase) and construction land growth (24.3%). This study provides critical insights for managing nutrient imbalances in shallow lake ecosystems undergoing rapid watershed development. Land use Water quality monitoring Remote sensing monitoring Spatiotemporal changes Driving mechanism Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7156939","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":492188630,"identity":"8ba3522a-cfe8-4e74-ad3b-0037000902ec","order_by":0,"name":"Xu Cui","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Chinese Academy of Sciences","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xu","middleName":"","lastName":"Cui","suffix":""},{"id":492188631,"identity":"b9aaafff-2a9e-4cbc-abe8-488a98e34460","order_by":1,"name":"Ziming Wang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"China National Environmental Monitoring Centre","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ziming","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":492188632,"identity":"7cc6203e-0f0d-4e53-825a-d7e3051d176e","order_by":2,"name":"Lihu Yang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA50lEQVRIie3QvwuCQBTA8RcHuhy5FtKPP+FCiP6ck6BJwgiaA4dGV/+MQGhquLjBxWhocYgQAmlwEFwb8nI/cwu673C84T7weAAq1a+WEgYGakVoRfpeOwIMKvVlJDrzJ3Vvdhjp13J1vIOxY53SlZF4uZhRktkHjjdmkK2hF1NkBjLCnCmhhAuyQJhRgAQ0hGXkktck9PC8FGTUSBLHSgXZI52ZgpAm0k/yaXVkbgUca4LgSWx7pox0L45VFC8+8P3oIRYbDiN+KmVkzEDr1SMmnxegs5UAgNEWUFGPeir9qVKpVP/bG5wXT/jCpILVAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Chinese Academy of Sciences","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lihu","middleName":"","lastName":"Yang","suffix":""},{"id":492188633,"identity":"4c8f18f6-0322-41b7-a29d-791a79eb569d","order_by":3,"name":"Xianfang Song","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Chinese Academy of Sciences","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xianfang","middleName":"","lastName":"Song","suffix":""},{"id":492188634,"identity":"d145870c-677c-498d-9d8b-0c16915f9093","order_by":4,"name":"Dongxu Yao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"China National Environmental Monitoring Centre","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dongxu","middleName":"","lastName":"Yao","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-18 10:53:25","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7156939/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7156939/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":92664008,"identity":"d0adf4c6-61cb-4ed5-b305-bc626c1beb43","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-02 15:48:02","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1891187,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7156939/v1_covered_647228eb-5894-4bd2-b2cb-39bcf82de62f.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Long-Term Impacts of Land Use Changes on Lake Eutrophication: A Remote Sensing-Based Analysis of Baiyangdian Lake (1988–2022)","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Land use, Water quality monitoring, Remote sensing monitoring, Spatiotemporal changes, Driving mechanism","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7156939/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7156939/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eAs a critical freshwater resource for the Xiong'an New Area, Baiyangdian Lake plays a vital role in regional water security and ecosystem stability. This study presents a comprehensive 34-year (1988\u0026ndash;2022) assessment of eutrophication dynamics using an integrated approach combining Landsat imagery and in situ water quality monitoring. We developed robust random forest regression models (R\u0026sup2; = 0.72\u0026ndash;0.85) to retrieve chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations, enabling high-resolution spatiotemporal analysis. Our results reveal divergent nutrient trends: while TP showed a significant decline (2.05\u0026times;10⁻⁴ mg\u0026middot;L⁻\u0026sup1;\u0026middot;yr⁻\u0026sup1;, p\u0026thinsp;\u0026lt;\u0026thinsp;0.01) concurrent with Chl-a reductions (0.12 \u0026micro;g\u0026middot;L⁻\u0026sup1;\u0026middot;yr⁻\u0026sup1;), TN exhibited a concerning increase (1.55\u0026times;10⁻⁴ mg\u0026middot;L⁻\u0026sup1;\u0026middot;yr⁻\u0026sup1;). Partial least squares regression analysis identified watershed land-use changes as primary drivers, with three key findings: (1) Agricultural runoff contributed 42\u0026ndash;58% of TP loading, with landscape fragmentation exacerbating phosphorus transport; (2) Ecological water transfers unexpectedly accounted for 31% of TN inputs through sediment resuspension; (3) Despite increasing anthropogenic pressure, environmental management measures effectively reduced the trophic level index (TLI) by 0.67 per decade. Spatial analysis highlighted hotspots near urban and agricultural areas, demonstrating the compound impacts of cropland expansion (18.7% increase) and construction land growth (24.3%). This study provides critical insights for managing nutrient imbalances in shallow lake ecosystems undergoing rapid watershed development.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Long-Term Impacts of Land Use Changes on Lake Eutrophication: A Remote Sensing-Based Analysis of Baiyangdian Lake (1988–2022)","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-08-29 08:35:34","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7156939/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"1bca64f0-b5c1-4bf0-b86a-606c0eb1e98a","owner":[],"postedDate":"August 29th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-10-02T15:39:54+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-08-29 08:35:34","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7156939","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7156939","identity":"rs-7156939","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}