Modeling infections and deaths averted due to COVID-19 vaccination strategies in Ghana

This study assessed the impact of various COVID-19 vaccination strategies on health outcomes in Ghana using an age-stratified compartmental model. The population was stratified into three age groups: <25 years, 25-64 years, and 65+ years. Five vaccination optimization scenarios were explored, assuming that one million persons could be vaccinated in three versus six months. We also performed uncertainty analysis by assuming that the available doses were halved and doubled. The vaccine optimization strategies were assessed for the initial strain, followed by a sensitivity analysis for the delta variant by varying the reproduction number and vaccine efficacy. The results showed that vaccinating individuals <65 years was associated with the lowest cumulative infections when one million persons were vaccinated over three months for both the initial strain and the delta variant. On the contrary, prioritizing the elderly (65+) was associated with the lowest cumulative deaths for both strains. One-sentence summary An age-stratified model of COVID-19 vaccination in Ghana found vaccinating individuals <65 years was associated with the lowest cumulative infections when one million persons were vaccinated over three months while prioritizing the elderly (65+) was associated with the lowest cumulative deaths.