QJHong Model for Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States

We present the methodology of the QJHong model, a machine learning predictive model we built to forecast the COVID-19 daily cases, number of daily deaths, fatality rate, reproductive number, and overall trends in the United States (both national and individual states). We measure the accuracy and compare it to other predictive models. Several forecast analyses consistently demonstrate that the QJHong model outperforms other models submitted to the COVID-19 Forecast Hub with regards to forecasting national data. The Forecast Hub is utilized by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as a means of disseminating official public communications pertaining to the ongoing pandemic. As such, our model has been identified as a premier performer within this context.