Reversing the Cumulative Redundancy Bias to Demonstrate Metacognitive Flexibility in Cue Utilization

The cumulative redundancy bias (CRB) refers to people’s difficulty to ignore the redundancy in cumulatively presented information. For instance, when people consider which of two teams is better, they should focus on the total number of points that each team has at the time. Yet, people are also influenced by the sequence of events that led to that accumulated score, such that if one team was ahead most of the season, people consider it better – even if those teams are currently tied. However, an opposite bias emerges when participants focus on performance trends (performance trend bias; PTB): When the trailing team is catching up to the leading team, people judge it as the better team – even if the other team is still ahead. In three experiments where we manipulated slope magnitude, we obtained both effects: the PTB was observed when the slope was big; the CRB emerged when the slope was small. These studies demonstrate a striking malleability of the cognitive system, flexibly weighing different cues. Results are discussed in terms of metacognitive regulation.