Profound modern sea-level evolution against geological backdrop in southeastern China

Profound modern sea-level evolution against geological backdrop in southeastern China | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Profound modern sea-level evolution against geological backdrop in southeastern China Yucheng Lin, Robert E. Kopp, Haixian Xiong, Fiona D. Hibbert, and 6 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6133070/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Quantifying the physical mechanisms driving relative sea-level change—including global mean sea level (GMSL) and its regional and local components (i.e., sea level budget)—is essential for reliable future projections and effective coastal management. While previous research has focused on sea-level budgets for China from late 20th-century, these studies capture short timescales and lack the long-term context necessary to fully assess modern sea-level rise. Here, we employ a spatiotemporal hierarchical model to reconstruct process-related Holocene sea-level budget (11700 BP to present) across different spatiotemporal scales in southeastern China. By integrating geological proxies, tide gauge records, and paleoenvironmental data, our finding show that while deglacial land ice melt-induced GMSL dominated the overall Holocene sea-level budget, its stabilization since the late Holocene (~4300 BP) has shifted the primary drivers to location-dependent regional processes, such as glacial isostatic adjustment and climate variability. This stability was disrupted in the mid-19th century by accelerating GMSL rise; it is extremely likely (P>0.95) that the GMSL rise rate since 1900 CE (1.51 > 0.16 mm/yr, 1σ) has exceeded any century over the past four millennia. Moreover, our geological analysis indicates that at least 94% of the rapid modern urban subsidence is attributable to anthropogenic activities, significantly amplifying local sea-level rise, with localized rates often exceeding the GMSL rise rate. These results highlight the profound modern sea-level evolution against its geological backdrop in southeastern China and emphasize the urgent need for city-specific, adaptive risk management strategies to address the pronounced spatial variability in the sea-level budget. sea level change Holocene sea-level budgets Hierarchical modeling Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6133070","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":422589523,"identity":"3c4d0fb6-698e-4de1-96d9-6e6b6130e369","order_by":0,"name":"Yucheng Lin","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA0ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACxgMJDDZI/ANE6AFqSWNgYCNJCwPDYRK0GBw/wHDg4Y7z+Qb32y8+rvjDIMd3I4GAljMJDAcSz9y23HCMp9jwbBuDsSRBLTeALklsu21gcIwnTbKxgSFxA5FazoG0pP9s+MNQT6yWA0At7McYG9gYEgwIaZE8k9gA1JJsIHksh1mysU3CcOaZB/i18B0/fPDhzzY7A77Dxx9+bPhjI893nIAtCgcYG6BMHgMgIYFfOQjIN8CZ7AQcNApGwSgYBSMWAAD5/U15nuB/gQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yucheng","middleName":"","lastName":"Lin","suffix":""},{"id":422589524,"identity":"41459afd-01b8-4938-8153-a1737625b034","order_by":1,"name":"Robert E. 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While previous research has focused on sea-level budgets for China from late 20th-century, these studies capture short timescales and lack the long-term context necessary to fully assess modern sea-level rise. Here, we employ a spatiotemporal hierarchical model to reconstruct process-related Holocene sea-level budget (11700 BP to present) across different spatiotemporal scales in southeastern China. By integrating geological proxies, tide gauge records, and paleoenvironmental data, our finding show that while deglacial land ice melt-induced GMSL dominated the overall Holocene sea-level budget, its stabilization since the late Holocene (~4300 BP) has shifted the primary drivers to location-dependent regional processes, such as glacial isostatic adjustment and climate variability. 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