Role of Proximate Determinants on the Fertility Rate Among Currently Married Women in Somalia via Bongaart’s Model: Findings From 2018-19 Sdhs Data

Abstract Background High fertility leads overpopulation and underdevelopment. All continents, including Africa, undertaken fertility decline. Somalia has a high fertility rate of over 6 births per woman. However, no national or sub-national studies have explored fertility determinants in Somalia. This study seeks to address this gap by examining intermediate fertility variables' impact on fertility in Somalia. Methods The study utilized secondary data from the Somalia Health Demographic Survey (SDHS) conducted between 2018 and 2019, employing Classical Bongaart's Aggregate and Disaggregate models. Findings: At the national level, postpartum infecundity caused a 51.14% reduction in Somalia's fertility rate, while marriage contributed to a decline of 48.01%. Contraception had a minimal effect, lowering the rate by only 0.79%. Sub-group analysis showed employed individuals contributed most to the Marriage Index (72.05%), with primary or higher education having a significant impact (65.77%). Unemployed individuals with no education had the highest contribution to the Postpartum Infecundability Index (75.48% and 59.48%, respectively). The Contraception Index had relatively low contributions, with urban areas and individuals with primary and higher education contributing the most (1.09% and 1.64%, respectively). Conclusion The study found nationally, longer breastfeeding and delayed marriage reduced fertility. In sub-groups, education and employment reduced fertility through the Marriage Index, while residence and employment decreased fertility through the Postpartum Infecundability Index. The Contraception Index had a smaller impact, but higher contributions in urban areas and among those with higher education.