An Energy Based Model for Micro-Simulation of a Synthetic Population of Free Cyclists

Recent trends in mobility and transportation underscore the growing importance of promoting alternative, flexible, and environmentally friendly modes of transport – such as cycling – that not only contribute significantly to users’ health and well-being but also enable urban concepts like the 15-minute city. For cyclists, travel time is a critical factor influencing both route selection and the decision to choose cycling as a preferred mode of transportation. This paper presents an energy-based model of a synthetic population of free cyclists to analyze their speed profile characteristics, summarized in terms of average speed. The model accounts for key factors such as rolling resistance and aerodynamic drag – both of which vary with ambient temperature – along with acceleration, road gradient, and other influences, including free rolling and deceleration or stopping at intersections and traffic lights. The results reveal a distribution of cycling speeds ranging between 15 and 24 km/h, with a notable concentration around the mean rather than following a normal distribution. The proposed model is intended for use in evaluating infrastructure planning, optimizing green wave traffic light systems, and assessing the health benefits of cycling.