Shifting Boundaries: Climate-Driven Niche Limits in North American Felids — Insights from Variable Ecological Restriction Analysis

Shifting Boundaries: Climate-Driven Niche Limits in North American Felids — Insights from Variable Ecological Restriction Analysis | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Shifting Boundaries: Climate-Driven Niche Limits in North American Felids — Insights from Variable Ecological Restriction Analysis İdris Sarı, Petr Papežík, Abid Ali This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9460867/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 7 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The Canada lynx ( Lynx canadensis ) and the bobcat ( Lynx rufus ) are congeneric felids whose climatic niches and distributional overlap are being reshaped by climate change. We integrated ensemble distribution models, Humboldt niche overlap analysis, and a novel centroid-distance diagnostic—Variable Ecological Restriction Analysis (VERA)—using 6,723 and 9,030 independent occurrence records and 36 climatic predictors to characterize their climatic relationship. Niche equivalency was rejected ( p = 0.0099), and niche divergence was not explained by background climate differences ( p = 0.0101; p = 0.0263), indicating active climatic segregation despite 62.83% analogous environmental space. This divergence was asymmetric: the Canada lynx exhibited an envelope-driven niche constrained by multiple climatic axes (no single predictor exceeding 25.08% importance), whereas the bobcat exhibited a threshold-driven niche dominated by coldest-quarter potential evapotranspiration (45.83%). A regional diagnostic comparison between VERA and Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surfaces (MESS) across 95 jurisdictions showed higher spatial concordance for the bobcat (81% of jurisdictions; 64.6% by area) than for the Canada lynx (60%; 42.4%), with VERA demonstrating greater ecological alignment across 31.6% of the continent for the envelope-driven specialist. Mid-century projections (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5) indicated asymmetric redistribution: highly suitable space for the Canada lynx is projected to contract > 50%, whereas the bobcat is positioned for an approximately 50% net gain through substantial northward expansion. Potential Niche Truncation Index values (Canada lynx: 0.875; bobcat: 0.850) indicate that occupied niches already approach continental climatic boundaries, leaving limited capacity for compensatory redistribution under continued warming. climatic niche divergence envelope-driven niche Lynx canadensis Lynx rufus niche truncation VERA Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files SupplementaryMaterial1.zip SupplementaryMaterial2.pdf SupplementaryMaterial3.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 18 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 May, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 29 Apr, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 29 Apr, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 27 Apr, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 20 Apr, 2026 First submitted to journal 19 Apr, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9460867","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":635721374,"identity":"224e38a6-e0af-4ed0-b4bd-fac4223bd763","order_by":0,"name":"İdris 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