The effect of initial placement of mutant in subdivided population on fixation time and probability

The effect of initial placement of mutant in subdivided population on fixation time and probability | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The effect of initial placement of mutant in subdivided population on fixation time and probability Javad Mohamadichamgavi, Mohamadreza Zahedian This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3839689/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract Evolutionary graph theory investigates how population structure changes evolutionary dynamics. In this paper, we examine how the structure of a subdivided population impacts mutant fixation probability and time under the Moran Birth-death process with constant fitness. Specifically, we model the population as two fully connected subpopulations (cliques) linked by a few links. Using an analytical Markov-chain approach supplemented by Monte Carlo simulations, we explore how the size of the starting clique where the initial mutant arises influences its eventual fixation outcomes. We demonstrate that initiating the process in a smaller clique boosts fixation probability and acts as an amplifier of selection compared to a well-mixed population while a bigger starting clique acts as a suppressor of selection. Also, we show that both unconditional and conditional fixation time are affected by the starting clique size and fitness value. For small cliques, increased fitness reduces unconditional fixation time, whereas, for larger cliques, greater fitness prolongs it. Additionally, conditional fixation time grows with increased starting clique size until a critical size and then decreases. This critical size is different depending on fitness value. In general, a combination of fitness level and starting clique size serves to maximize the conditional fixation time. Biological sciences/Evolution/Evolutionary theory Biological sciences/Ecology/Ecological networks Evolutionary game theory Subdivided population Moran Process Fixation Probability Fixation time Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-3839689","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":267836519,"identity":"c60141ef-7ea7-48a9-a159-d34a413148fb","order_by":0,"name":"Javad Mohamadichamgavi","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA40lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBAC9gYGNhDN2AZkHYCIJQBxAW4tjHAtPAeQtRgQoaVBIgEmRkjLtMPHHvzMsZPtk3ydeOhm22EGfvYcA+YCfFpmp6Ub9m5LNm6Tzt1wOBeoRbLnjQHzDLxacswkeLcxJ0K13GYwuAG0hYeAFsm/2+oT2yTPQrTYE9IiCNQizbvtcGKbBC/UFgkCWqSl09KkZbcdN27jATos59x/HokzzwoO4/MLn3TyMcm326pl57ef3fw5pyxNjr89eePjggrcWjAAD4g4TIIGKGAmXcsoGAWjYBQMYwAAfudRcVpOX7MAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"University of Warsaw","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Javad","middleName":"","lastName":"Mohamadichamgavi","suffix":""},{"id":267836520,"identity":"3d03d606-a002-4fb1-8a8d-2fff41a6a811","order_by":1,"name":"Mohamadreza Zahedian","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Shahid Beheshti University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mohamadreza","middleName":"","lastName":"Zahedian","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-01-06 12:14:08","currentVersionCode":2,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3839689/v2","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3839689/v2","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":55407863,"identity":"a9c94420-bfe7-465f-ae56-decd56506dee","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-04-26 22:07:49","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1425150,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"communityarxive.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-3839689/v2_covered_99da8487-d7bd-44a2-a2bf-cd4aa163607c.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eThe effect of initial placement of mutant in subdivided population on fixation time and probability\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Evolutionary game theory, Subdivided population, Moran Process, Fixation Probability, Fixation time","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-3839689/v2","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-3839689/v2","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eEvolutionary graph theory investigates how population structure changes evolutionary dynamics. 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