­­Tsunami hazard induced by an Early Holocene landslide in the Tagus delta off Lisbon (Portugal)

­­Tsunami hazard induced by an Early Holocene landslide in the Tagus delta off Lisbon (Portugal) | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article ­­Tsunami hazard induced by an Early Holocene landslide in the Tagus delta off Lisbon (Portugal) I. Ramalho, R. Omira, P. Terrinha This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4731376/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 04 Dec, 2024 Read the published version in Natural Hazards → Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Submarine landslides are a major source of tsunamis, with waves highly dependent of the properties of both the landslide and the marine domain. This study investigates the tsunamigenesis of a shallow-water submarine landslide, recently mapped at the mouth of the Tagus delta River, off Lisbon, Portugal. The Tagus delta landslide is estimated to be 8 ky old, with a depositional maximum thickness of ~ 20 m and a volume of approximately 0.27 km 3 , extending over more than 9 km in length and 3 km in width. We assess the tsunamigenic potential and hazard of this possible early Holocene landslide using numerical simulations over high resolution reconstructed paleo-bathymetry, and project a similar future landslide scenario under the present-day conditions. Results show that both paleo- and future landslide scenarios are tsunamigenic, posing a significant tsunami hazard to the nearest coasts of Lisbon and surrounding areas. At the source region, the formed tsunami reached heights of 0.8 m (paleo-scenario) and 1.45 m (future-scenario), increasing to approximately 2 m (both scenarios) as it propagated towards Lisbon’s coastline. This study is a first attempt to address the tsunamigenic potential of a submarine landslide occurring in a shallow water environment of the Portuguese margin domain. The results reinforce the need to include these small, but frequent, events and their induced tsunamis in marine geo-hazard assessments of the region. Tsunami landslide hazard extent numerical modelling Tagus Delta NE Atlantic Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 04 Dec, 2024 Read the published version in Natural Hazards → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Major revisions 05 Sep, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 14 Jul, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 14 Jul, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 13 Jul, 2024 First submitted to journal 12 Jul, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4731376","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":326654541,"identity":"9d4e2fb5-d71e-4b65-9a7d-264b083b4abe","order_by":0,"name":"I. Ramalho","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA6UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLCChw1AghnEqgAxmBsIa0mEazkDYjASqwUEGNvAJH4t5u2nEz8k7rBh0G3nPfjw57zaaP52oJYfFdtwapE5k7tZIvFMGoPZYb5kY95tx3NnHGZsYOw5cxunFgmG3A0SiW2HgVp4zKQZtx3LbQBqYWZsw6OF/+3mH1At5j9/zjmWO5+gFoncbXBbGHgbanI3ENbydptFYlsaD1CLsTTPsQO5G4FaDuL1C3/u5hsf22zkzM6fMfz4o6Yud975wwcf/KjArQUGeKD0YTB5gKB6JFBHiuJRMApGwSgYIQAASiFaTDjInCYAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8697-0881","institution":"Instituto Portugues do Mar e da Atmosfera","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"I.","middleName":"","lastName":"Ramalho","suffix":""},{"id":326654542,"identity":"8f9bfbbc-52af-4df1-8c85-76e6d9997d72","order_by":1,"name":"R. Omira","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Instituto Portugues do Mar e da Atmosfera","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"R.","middleName":"","lastName":"Omira","suffix":""},{"id":326654543,"identity":"2e2b230c-5a40-4423-87ed-d89454088341","order_by":2,"name":"P. Terrinha","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Instituto Portugues do Mar e da Atmosfera","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"P.","middleName":"","lastName":"Terrinha","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-07-12 15:47:26","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4731376/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4731376/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-07045-7","type":"published","date":"2024-12-04T15:57:07+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":70964655,"identity":"a82d1f23-55da-4ae3-8841-124fc37d8122","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-09 16:13:45","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1665745,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Ramalhoetat2024.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4731376/v1_covered_3bd0052c-fe12-454f-944a-190c2be3a0e1.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"­­Tsunami hazard induced by an Early Holocene landslide in the Tagus delta off Lisbon (Portugal)","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"natural-hazards","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nhaz","sideBox":"Learn more about [Natural Hazards](https://www.springer.com/journal/11069)","snPcode":"11069","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11069/3","title":"Natural Hazards","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Tsunami, landslide, hazard extent, numerical modelling, Tagus Delta, NE Atlantic","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4731376/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4731376/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eSubmarine landslides are a major source of tsunamis, with waves highly dependent of the properties of both the landslide and the marine domain. This study investigates the tsunamigenesis of a shallow-water submarine landslide, recently mapped at the mouth of the Tagus delta River, off Lisbon, Portugal. The Tagus delta landslide is estimated to be 8 ky old, with a depositional maximum thickness of ~\u0026thinsp;20 m and a volume of approximately 0.27 km\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e, extending over more than 9 km in length and 3 km in width. We assess the tsunamigenic potential and hazard of this possible early Holocene landslide using numerical simulations over high resolution reconstructed paleo-bathymetry, and project a similar future landslide scenario under the present-day conditions. Results show that both paleo- and future landslide scenarios are tsunamigenic, posing a significant tsunami hazard to the nearest coasts of Lisbon and surrounding areas. At the source region, the formed tsunami reached heights of 0.8 m (paleo-scenario) and 1.45 m (future-scenario), increasing to approximately 2 m (both scenarios) as it propagated towards Lisbon\u0026rsquo;s coastline. This study is a first attempt to address the tsunamigenic potential of a submarine landslide occurring in a shallow water environment of the Portuguese margin domain. The results reinforce the need to include these small, but frequent, events and their induced tsunamis in marine geo-hazard assessments of the region.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"­­Tsunami hazard induced by an Early Holocene landslide in the Tagus delta off Lisbon (Portugal)","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-08-07 09:18:57","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4731376/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Major revisions","date":"2024-09-05T05:22:59+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"","date":"2024-07-14T06:46:39+00:00","index":0,"fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2024-07-14T06:37:59+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2024-07-13T11:59:00+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Natural Hazards","date":"2024-07-12T09:38:25+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"natural-hazards","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nhaz","sideBox":"Learn more about [Natural Hazards](https://www.springer.com/journal/11069)","snPcode":"11069","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/11069/3","title":"Natural Hazards","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"8811955e-ef21-41d9-abb8-e766ddb97cbf","owner":[],"postedDate":"August 7th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-12-09T16:00:01+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-4731376","link":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-07045-7","journal":{"identity":"natural-hazards","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Natural Hazards"},"publishedOn":"2024-12-04 15:57:07","publishedOnDateReadable":"December 4th, 2024"},"versionCreatedAt":"2024-08-07 09:18:57","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1007/s11069-024-07045-7","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-024-07045-7","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4731376","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4731376","identity":"rs-4731376","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}