A dynamic modeling approach for infrastructure project evaluation under evolving risks

A dynamic modeling approach for infrastructure project evaluation under evolving risks | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article A dynamic modeling approach for infrastructure project evaluation under evolving risks Nayled Acuña-Coll, Mauricio Sánchez-Silva This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8287276/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Infrastructure systems integrate physical, financial and environmental processes whose interactions shape long-term project outcomes, yet conventional evaluations often treat these domains separately. We introduce a dynamic evaluation framework that captures cross-domain feedbacks on a single decision timeline and explicitly compares its results with a conventional penalty-based financial appraisal. The framework adopts a standard structure for sequential decision-making under uncertainty supported by Monte Carlo simulation. A stylized pipeline case illustrates the approach, focusing on financial feasibility while routing physical degradation and environmental charges through the project cash cascade. Simulation experiments show that disturbances generate non-linear financial risks and a higher probability of falling below the profitability threshold than suggested by the traditional assessment. We also propose a slope-based diagnostic that indicates when dynamic evaluation is warranted under evolving risk conditions, supporting more integrated and risk-sensitive appraisal of infrastructure projects in uncertain environments. Infrastructure project evaluation Evolving risk Project finance Project risk management Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 31 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 31 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 04 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 21 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 20 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 18 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 13 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Jan, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 14 Jan, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 14 Dec, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 14 Dec, 2025 First submitted to journal 05 Dec, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8287276","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":575835512,"identity":"7a3714be-f6b3-4c0e-91c2-8b48548b97ea","order_by":0,"name":"Nayled 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