Statistical context dictates the relationship between feedback-related EEG signals and learning

Successful decision-making requires learning expectations based on experienced outcomes. This learning should be calibrated according to the surprise associated with an outcome, but also to the statistical context dictating the most likely source of surprise. For example, when occasional changepoints are expected, surprising outcomes should be weighted heavily, demanding increased learning. In contrast, when signal corruption is expected to occur occasionally, surprising outcomes can suggest a corrupt signal that should be ignored by learning systems. Here we dissociate surprising outcomes from the degree to which they demand learning using a predictive inference task and computational modeling. We show that the updating P300, a stimulus-locked electrophysiological response previously associated with adjustments in learning behavior, does so conditionally on the source of surprise. Larger P300 signals predicted greater learning in a changing context, but predicted less learning in a context where surprise was indicative of a one-off outlier (oddball). The conditional predictive relationship between the P300 and learning behavior was persistent even after adjusting for known sources of learning rate variability. Our results suggest that the P300 provides a surprise signal that is interpreted by downstream learning processes differentially according to statistical context in order to appropriately calibrate learning across complex environments.