The predictions of seven cancers burden attributed to high fasting plasma glucose from 2020 to 2030

The predictions of seven cancers burden attributed to high fasting plasma glucose from 2020 to 2030 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The predictions of seven cancers burden attributed to high fasting plasma glucose from 2020 to 2030 Jianming Ye, Ping Wang, Juanjuan Qin, Fang Lei, Fangfang Tang, and 11 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4369129/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background High fasting plasma glucose (High-FPG) is a major contributory but neglected factor for the risk of neoplastic transformation, progression and mortality. Estimating the global cancer burden attributable to High-FPG is essential for effective interventions. Methods We projected the change in the global cancer burden attributable to High-FPG from 2020 to 2030 by the Bayesian age-period-cohort model using the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. Then we depicted the projected age-standardized rate of cancer-related death and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to High-FPG by sex, region and cancer types. Results Globally, the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of cancer attributable to High-FPG increased from 1990 to 2019, and will increase to 109.79 and 5.97 per 100,000 population by 2030, respectively. The ASDR and ASMR will be higher in males than females all along and positively with SDI levels. Except for the high-middle SDI regions where ASDR is expected to decline from 110.18 per 100 000 in 2020 to 100.12 per 100 000 in 2030, all other SDI regions are expected to show an upward trend. Comparing with the rapid increase in low SDI areas, the uptrends of High-FPG-related cancer burden in high SDI regions is expected to flatten from 2020 to 2030. Overall, tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (TBLC), colon and rectum cancer (CRC), and breast cancer will still account for more than three-quarters of the total cancer burden related to High-FPG, and still be the top three among 7 cancers. Conclusion In the next decade, the global burden of cancer attributed to High-FPG will go on increasing progressively, and TBLC, CRC, and breast cancer will remain particularly prominent. High and high-middle SDI regions have a significantly higher burden. While this burden will increase rapidly in lower SDI regions, which further exacerbates the burden globally. Targeted and effective measures to control the burden of High-FPG-related cancer should be customized and implemented. High fasting plasma glucose Cancer Global disease burden Projection Prevention Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Tables 1 and 2 are available in the Supplementary Files section. Supplementary Files Table1.docx Table2.docx AdditionalFile1.doc Additional File 1, DOC, List of International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes mapped to the Global Burden of Disease cause list. AdditionalFile2.doc Additional File 2, DOC, Projection accuracy validation of Bayesian age-period-cohort model (<10% means acceptable). AdditionalFile3.doc Additional File 3, DOC, ASDR and ASMR attributable to High-FPG by sex, SDI, GBD regions in 1999, 2019 and EAPC from 1990 to 2019. AdditionalFile4.pdf Additional File 4, PDF, Association analysis of ASDR and ASMR with SDI (21 SDI regions), (A) Association analysis of ASDR with SDI (21 SDI regions) from 1990 to 2019. (B) Association analysis of ASMR with SDI (21 SDI regions) from 1990 to 2019. AdditionalFile5.doc Additional File 5, DOC, ASDR and ASMR of 7 cancers attributable to High-FPG by sex in 1999, 2019 and EAPC from 1990 to 2019. AdditionalFile6.pdf Additional File 6, PDF, Seven cancers burdens attributable to High-FPG by sex in 21 GBD regions, (A) The ASDR in 2019. (B) The EAPC in ASDR from 1990 to 2019. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4369129","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":301588916,"identity":"c482fe8f-d3ed-43f5-b69c-61c8d6f2624e","order_by":0,"name":"Jianming Ye","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Department of oncology, First Affiliated Hospital, Gannan Medical University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jianming","middleName":"","lastName":"Ye","suffix":""},{"id":301588917,"identity":"2979628e-683f-4b09-8d76-0f346d8b413a","order_by":1,"name":"Ping Wang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Department of Oncology, 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projection\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003efrom 2020 to 2030.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(D) The ASMR in five SDI quintiles from 1990 to 2019, and projection\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003efrom 2020 to 2030.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure1.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4369129/v1/d22df24190dff6596254259c.jpg"},{"id":56363466,"identity":"394db537-6fd8-40e3-8675-0285d64a55c4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-05-13 08:14:25","extension":"jpg","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":1061898,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe overall burden of seven cancers attributable to High-FPG\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(A) The ASDR in 7 different cancers from 1990 to 2019, and projection\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003efrom 2020 to 2030.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(B) The ASMR in 7 different cancers from 1990 to 2019, and projection\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003efrom 2020 to 2030.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(C) The contribution of each cancer group to ASDR in 1990, 2019 and 2030, globally and in territories with high to low SDIs.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(D) The contribution of each cancer group to ASMR in 1990, 2019 and 2030, globally and in territories with high to low SDIs.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure2.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4369129/v1/64d919cb053035708d270d8f.jpg"},{"id":56364162,"identity":"4fd08917-d23e-4470-81f7-b0a984275926","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-05-13 08:22:25","extension":"jpg","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":1120064,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFour of seven cancers burdens attributable to High-FPG by sex and SDI\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(A) The ASDR of TBLC for males, in territories with low to high SDIs and from 1990 to 2019, and projection\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003efrom 2020 to 2030.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(B) The ASDR of TBLC for females, in territories with low to high SDIs and from 1990 to 2019, and projection\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003efrom 2020 to 2030.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(C) The ASDR of CRC for males, in territories with low to high SDIs and from 1990 to 2019, and projection\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003efrom 2020 to 2030.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(D) The ASDR of CRC for females, in territories with low to high SDIs and from 1990 to 2019, and projection\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003efrom 2020 to 2030.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(E) The ASDR of breast cancer for females, in territories with low to high SDIs and from 1990 to 2019, and projection\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003efrom 2020 to 2030.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(F) The ASDR of ovarian cancer for females, in territories with low to high SDIs and from 1990 to 2019, and projection\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003efrom 2020 to 2030.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure3.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4369129/v1/573a16ea975fcd6375c84271.jpg"},{"id":56363471,"identity":"16847c3c-6737-40c1-93db-eabcc066af99","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-05-13 08:14:25","extension":"jpg","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":1401341,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eSeven cancers burdens attributable to High-FPG by sex in 21 GBD regions.\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(A) The ASDR projection in 2030.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(B) The EAPC in ASDR from 2020 to 2030.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"Figure4.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4369129/v1/dad18f0bb3b89d78f7a155d0.jpg"},{"id":56363477,"identity":"55e18a98-f2ad-42a0-bc15-80f26d4364fe","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-05-13 08:14:25","extension":"jpg","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":1086777,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThree of seven cancers burdens attributable to High-FPG by sex and SDI\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(A) The ASDR of pancreatic cancer for males, in territories with low to high SDIs and from 1990 to 2019, and projection\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003efrom 2020 to 2030.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(B) The ASDR of pancreatic cancer for females, in territories with low to high SDIs and from 1990 to 2019, and projection\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003efrom 2020 to 2030.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(C) The ASDR of bladder cancer for males, in territories with low to high SDIs and from 1990 to 2019, and projection\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003efrom 2020 to 2030.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(D) The ASDR of bladder cancer for females, in territories with low to high SDIs and from 1990 to 2019, and projection\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003efrom 2020 to 2030.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(E) The ASDR of liver cancer for males, in territories with low to high SDIs and from 1990 to 2019, and projection\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003efrom 2020 to 2030.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(F) The ASDR of liver cancer for females, in territories with low to high SDIs and from 1990 to 2019, and projection\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003efrom 2020 to 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of International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes mapped to the Global Burden of Disease cause list.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"AdditionalFile1.doc","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4369129/v1/717576fef22feb8642900083.doc"},{"id":56363469,"identity":"0e806b3e-91dc-415d-8f4a-412d5fa8ed38","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-05-13 08:14:25","extension":"doc","order_by":4,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":42496,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eAdditional File 2, DOC, Projection accuracy validation of Bayesian age-period-cohort model (\u0026lt;10% means acceptable).\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"AdditionalFile2.doc","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4369129/v1/13f198b843fde3710a17f830.doc"},{"id":56363472,"identity":"7899af7d-299c-4463-ab72-b6b065eb17f7","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-05-13 08:14:25","extension":"doc","order_by":5,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":95854,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eAdditional File 3, DOC, ASDR and ASMR attributable to High-FPG by sex, SDI, GBD regions in 1999, 2019 and EAPC from 1990 to 2019.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"AdditionalFile3.doc","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4369129/v1/f55768a70c15f00556cf291f.doc"},{"id":56363476,"identity":"5d206ccb-9e85-43be-85fc-05c1868b2ed0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-05-13 08:14:25","extension":"pdf","order_by":6,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":458901,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eAdditional File 4, PDF, Association analysis of ASDR and ASMR with SDI (21 SDI regions), (A) Association analysis of ASDR\u003cstrong\u003e \u003c/strong\u003ewith SDI (21 SDI regions) from 1990 to 2019. (B) Association analysis of ASMR with SDI (21 SDI regions) from 1990 to 2019.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"AdditionalFile4.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4369129/v1/0869e6368da247ef906f7d35.pdf"},{"id":56363482,"identity":"b16cbfa7-f303-418c-9993-8e144cafd850","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-05-13 08:14:26","extension":"doc","order_by":7,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":69700,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eAdditional File 5, DOC, ASDR and ASMR of 7 cancers attributable to High-FPG by sex in 1999, 2019 and EAPC from 1990 to 2019.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"AdditionalFile5.doc","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4369129/v1/a2058ccdf6fcdd36694a49d5.doc"},{"id":56364163,"identity":"174da238-daed-4df5-bc79-98c4d1a950f1","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-05-13 08:22:25","extension":"pdf","order_by":8,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":434411,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eAdditional File 6, PDF, Seven cancers burdens attributable to High-FPG by sex in 21 GBD regions, (A) The ASDR in 2019. (B) The EAPC in ASDR from 1990 to 2019.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"AdditionalFile6.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4369129/v1/aff09c276bf398c0ff7a1f48.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"\u003cp\u003eNo competing interests reported.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eTables 1 and 2 are available in the Supplementary Files section.\u003c/p\u003e","formattedTitle":"The predictions of seven cancers burden attributed to high fasting plasma glucose from 2020 to 2030","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"High fasting plasma glucose, Cancer, Global disease burden, Projection, Prevention","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4369129/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4369129/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eBackground\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHigh fasting plasma glucose (High-FPG) is a major contributory but neglected factor for the risk of neoplastic transformation, progression and mortality. Estimating the global cancer burden attributable to High-FPG is essential for effective interventions.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eMethods\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eWe projected the change in the global cancer burden attributable to High-FPG from 2020 to 2030 by the Bayesian age-period-cohort model using the data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. Then we depicted the projected age-standardized rate of cancer-related death and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to High-FPG by sex, region and cancer types.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eResults\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eGlobally, the age-standardized DALYs rate (ASDR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of cancer attributable to High-FPG increased from 1990 to 2019, and will increase to 109.79 and 5.97 per 100,000 population by 2030, respectively. The ASDR and ASMR will be higher in males than females all along and positively with SDI levels. Except for the high-middle SDI regions where ASDR is expected to decline from 110.18 per 100 000 in 2020 to 100.12 per 100 000 in 2030, all other SDI regions are expected to show an upward trend. Comparing with the rapid increase in low SDI areas, the uptrends of High-FPG-related cancer burden in high SDI regions is expected to flatten from 2020 to 2030. Overall, tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (TBLC), colon and rectum cancer (CRC), and breast cancer will still account for more than three-quarters of the total cancer burden related to High-FPG, and still be the top three among 7 cancers.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConclusion\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eIn the next decade, the global burden of cancer attributed to High-FPG will go on increasing progressively, and TBLC, CRC, and breast cancer will remain particularly prominent. High and high-middle SDI regions have a significantly higher burden. While this burden will increase rapidly in lower SDI regions, which further exacerbates the burden globally. Targeted and effective measures to control the burden of High-FPG-related cancer should be customized and implemented.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"The predictions of seven cancers burden attributed to high fasting plasma glucose from 2020 to 2030","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-05-13 08:14:20","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4369129/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"0d27f396-e485-4e5a-b15c-f769389d898a","owner":[],"postedDate":"May 13th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-08-25T16:51:41+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2024-05-13 08:14:20","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4369129","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4369129","identity":"rs-4369129","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}