Averting the steel carbon lock-in through strategic green investments

Averting the steel carbon lock-in through strategic green investments | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Averting the steel carbon lock-in through strategic green investments Clara Bachorz, Jakob Dürrwächter, Chen Gong, Adrian Odenweller, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8435240/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract A new wave of steel capacity additions in emerging economies threatens to lock in coal-based production for decades. By combining detailed steel production modelling with plant-level data in an integrated assessment model, we estimate that existing and planned coal-based steel plants could commit the world to nearly 60 Gt CO₂. If current policy and investment trends continue beyond current plans, committed emissions reach 115 Gt CO₂, consuming 20% of the remaining carbon budget for limiting peak warming to 1.7°C. We show that 60% of this lock-in can be avoided at moderate average abatement costs of $100–150 tCO₂⁻¹. In India alone, 22 Gt CO2 of future emissions could be avoided by leveraging climate finance to redirect $50 billion this decade towards hydrogen-ready direct reduction steel plants. Near-term investment decisions on new steelmaking capacity therefore represent a critical opportunity to avert the carbon lock-in and align the sector with climate targets. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change mitigation Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy modelling Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy economics Scientific community and society/Energy and society/Energy policy Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change mitigation Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SI.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8435240","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":572935001,"identity":"aac9f836-ab06-40bc-8e04-b2a0bcb27826","order_by":0,"name":"Clara 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