Role of Fluctuations in COVID-19 Epidemic Resurgence after the Lockdown
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OA: gold
CC-BY-4.0
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This paper demonstrates that time-correlated fluctuations, not just average dynamics, significantly influence COVID-19 epidemic spread and resurgence, particularly after limited periods of increased social contact.
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Abstract
Most popular statistical models in epidemic evolution focus on the dynamics of average relevant quantities and overlooks the role of small fluctuations on the model parameters. Models for Covid-19 are no exception. In this paper we show that the role of time-correlated fluctuations, far from being negligible, can in fact determine the spreading of an epidemic and, most importantly, the resurgence of the exponential diffusion in the presence of time-limited episodes in promiscuity behaviours.
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- europepmc
- last seen: 2026-05-19T01:45:01.086888+00:00
- unpaywall
- last seen: 2026-05-21T05:10:58.409756+00:00
License: CC-BY-4.0