Estimating Cost Pass through and asymmetric price transmission in the UK’s road fuels supply chain

Estimating Cost Pass through and asymmetric price transmission in the UK’s road fuels supply chain | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Estimating Cost Pass through and asymmetric price transmission in the UK’s road fuels supply chain ivi theodoulou This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8933751/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract This study examines the cost pass-through and price transmission mechanism within the supply chain of the UK’s road fuel sectors. Using newly utilized compiled updated datasets of 197 to 203 monthly observations from 2005 to 2021, I novelly estimate a significant amount of incomplete cost pass-through of a change in the input price to the wholesale price and a change in the wholesale price to the retail price of UK’s road fuels. I follow the empirical method of distributed lag models applied in Nakamura and Zerom (2010) and Deltas and Polemis (2024). Using double log specifications, the study reveals a 0.79% increase (decrease) in wholesale price after a 1% increase (decrease) in the input price. The study reveals an amount of incomplete cost pass-through of the wholesale to the retail price; in all three distinct cases of super unleaded, premium unleaded, and diesel as well as product heterogeneity in the degree of asymmetric price transmission. More specifically the study reveals negative asymmetric price transmission in the Uk’s road fuels sector. The study enhances robustness implementing the relatively new method of NARDL. JEL : D43; D41; D60 Stock price forecasting time-series data wavelet transform LSTM LightGBM hybrid model Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8933751","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":594881771,"identity":"7c4dc117-0024-4502-a6c5-2a6a6075e379","order_by":0,"name":"ivi theodoulou","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAzElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACxgcf/9gAaeYGMFeCkHoeoFLDmQ1pIK3Ea2ET5m04TIIWe/YeM2beHedl185IbGD4UcOQOLOBkC08Z8wezj1z23jbjcQGxp5jDImzCTpMIne7wRu224kgLQy8DQyJ8whqkX+7TYKH7RxYC+NforRI8G6T5G07ANbCDLKFsMPO5H82nHEm2XjbmYcNh2WOSRgT9D57+7HEBx8q7GS3HU8++PBNjY3sjAOErIECcKQcICJW0LSMglEwCkbBKMAKAFJ3Ro1Eb4THAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Queen Mary University of London","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"ivi","middleName":"","lastName":"theodoulou","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-21 13:23:26","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8933751/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8933751/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":105791802,"identity":"994f73a2-af3f-49be-a310-a84116450ab2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-31 07:44:15","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":576719,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"CPTintheroadfuelssectorreadyforsubmission.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8933751/v1_covered_00e871cc-d99f-4221-b4f7-7598d1d7bb64.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eEstimating Cost Pass through and asymmetric price transmission in the UK’s road fuels supply chain\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Stock price forecasting, time-series data, wavelet transform, LSTM, LightGBM, hybrid model","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8933751/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8933751/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study examines the cost pass-through and price transmission mechanism within the supply chain of the UK’s road fuel sectors. 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