Soil-moisture-atmosphere coupling hotspots and their representation in seasonal forecasts of boreal summer

Soil-moisture-atmosphere coupling hotspots and their representation in seasonal forecasts of boreal summer | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Soil-moisture-atmosphere coupling hotspots and their representation in seasonal forecasts of boreal summer Jonathan Day, Frederic Vitart, Tim Stockdale, Patricia de Rosnay, and 5 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5483979/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 26 Jun, 2025 Read the published version in Climate Dynamics → Version 2 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract This study examines soil-moisture-atmosphere coupling "hotspots" across the Northern Hemisphere during the summer months and evaluates their representation in seasonal forecasting systems. Using hindcasts from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) multi-model seasonal forecast ensemble, the analysis explores the predictability of land-atmosphere interactions related to soil moisture anomalies. The results indicate that regions with strong soil-moisture-atmosphere coupling, such as parts of western North America, southern Europe, and Central Asia, exhibit potential for predicting seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns a season or more in advance. However, significant uncertainty exists in estimates of the soil-moisture initial conditions and soil-moisture persistence timescales. Moreover, while some regions exhibit realistic coupled behaviour, others, including a large swathe of North America, Eastern Europe, and Northern India display exaggerated coupling, resulting in systematic errors in temperature forecasts. This study underscores the potential for predicting the atmosphere in summer based on memory of soil-moisture initial conditions whilst highlighting the need to improve the representation of soil-moisture atmosphere feedbacks in order to enhance the skill of seasonal climate predictions over land. Full Text Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformation.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 26 Jun, 2025 Read the published version in Climate Dynamics → Version 2 posted Editorial decision: Accept 30 May, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 30 Apr, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 29 Apr, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 24 Apr, 2025 First submitted to journal 23 Apr, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5483979","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":449924649,"identity":"64f08a07-fb4d-4bd2-8763-96088772a460","order_by":0,"name":"Jonathan 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