When does spillover indicate benefits to fish abundance and catch?

When does spillover indicate benefits to fish abundance and catch? | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article When does spillover indicate benefits to fish abundance and catch? Ray Hilborn, Mark Fitchett, John Hampton, Daniel Ovando This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4202772/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Spillover is a term commonly applied to the movement of fish from inside a closed area to areas open to fishing outside of the closure and is usually identified by gradients in abundance or catch rates near the boundaries. It is commonly assumed that such gradients indicate that the closed area has benefitted the fishery and the total abundance of fish. We explore this assumption for spatially explicit models of closed areas with different intensities of fishing and fish movement and find that such gradients will be expected any time there is higher abundance inside the closed area. However, under most conditions it does not indicate a benefit to the fishery either in terms of total catch of catch rate, and unless fishing is intense total abundance is not expected to rise significantly. We examine one specific case of estimates spillover from the Papahānaumokuākea marine monument, one the largest no-take areas in the world, and see no evidence of spillover for yellowfin tuna and very slight evidence for bigeye tuna. These results are consistent with the theoretical models, the biology of the species and the intensity of fishing. MPA Marine Protected Areas spillover Papahānaumokuākea marine monument Full Text Additional Declarations Competing interest reported. No specific funding was received for this research. RH has received research funds from a range of sources including governments, foundations, nongovernmental organizations, and industries that have interests in conservation, sustainable use, and effective fisheries management—which may be perceived as a conflict of interest. The other authors work for agencies that provide scientific and management advice to fisheries which also may be viewed as a conflict. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4202772","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":290194812,"identity":"153c5f8e-e975-4882-bd5f-9d1153a2f5bf","order_by":0,"name":"Ray Hilborn","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAvUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACA2bmNjCDH0QkFBClhRGiRbIBpMWAGC0MUC0GByBcwsCcnbHtwcc9d/KNz69O/PDAgEGeX+wAfi2WzYzthjOePbPcduPtZgmgwwxnzk4g4LDDjG3SPAcOG5jdOLsBpCXB4DaxWoxnnN38gzQtBvy924i2BegXoBaJG7zbLBIMJIjwy/nDxx58AGrh7z+7+eaPCht5fmkCWhBAAqxSgljlIMB/gBTVo2AUjIJRMJIAAKXARkRByGefAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"University of Washington","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ray","middleName":"","lastName":"Hilborn","suffix":""},{"id":290194814,"identity":"4203f325-2258-44bc-bc1f-072467f33af7","order_by":1,"name":"Mark Fitchett","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Western Pacific Fisheries Management Council","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mark","middleName":"","lastName":"Fitchett","suffix":""},{"id":290194815,"identity":"d9e711dc-2bb3-4e00-b9dc-3482e5a631bb","order_by":2,"name":"John Hampton","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Secretariat of the Pacific Community","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"John","middleName":"","lastName":"Hampton","suffix":""},{"id":290194816,"identity":"2d950e4d-5654-4e4b-89b1-494da2644ba7","order_by":3,"name":"Daniel Ovando","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Daniel","middleName":"","lastName":"Ovando","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-04-01 21:59:20","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4202772/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4202772/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":62019320,"identity":"03201fab-1f82-4be5-9e6f-e1540ac55bfd","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-08-08 09:23:31","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1153539,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SpilloverpaperV3a.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4202772/v1_covered_23e75462-d24b-4b8d-bc3e-7d5ab4350331.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"Competing interest reported. No specific funding was received for this research. RH has received research funds from a range of sources including governments, foundations, nongovernmental organizations, and industries that have interests in conservation, sustainable use, and effective fisheries management—which may be perceived as a conflict of interest. The other authors work for agencies that provide scientific and management advice to fisheries which also may be viewed as a conflict.","formattedTitle":"When does spillover indicate benefits to fish abundance and catch?","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"MPA, Marine Protected Areas, spillover, Papahānaumokuākea marine monument","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4202772/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4202772/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Spillover is a term commonly applied to the movement of fish from inside a closed area to areas open to fishing outside of the closure and is usually identified by gradients in abundance or catch rates near the boundaries. It is commonly assumed that such gradients indicate that the closed area has benefitted the fishery and the total abundance of fish. We explore this assumption for spatially explicit models of closed areas with different intensities of fishing and fish movement and find that such gradients will be expected any time there is higher abundance inside the closed area. However, under most conditions it does not indicate a benefit to the fishery either in terms of total catch of catch rate, and unless fishing is intense total abundance is not expected to rise significantly. We examine one specific case of estimates spillover from the Papahānaumokuākea marine monument, one the largest no-take areas in the world, and see no evidence of spillover for yellowfin tuna and very slight evidence for bigeye tuna. These results are consistent with the theoretical models, the biology of the species and the intensity of fishing.","manuscriptTitle":"When does spillover indicate benefits to fish abundance and catch?","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-04-12 11:32:56","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4202772/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"379ad6d4-a193-4462-b253-2fd71b38eed3","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 12th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-08-08T09:15:23+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2024-04-12 11:32:56","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4202772","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4202772","identity":"rs-4202772","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}