Transitional Wave Climate Regions on Continental and Polar Coasts in a Warming World

Abstract We provide a comprehensive analysis of the spatial-temporal changes in the atmospheric-driven major wave climates (easterlies, southerlies, and westerlies) under two different Representative Concentration Pathways, the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the end-of-the-century (2075–2099). By comparing the projected scenarios with historical conditions, we found that the easterly wave climates will be more frequents in the southwest basins (up to 15%) and the southerlies in the eastern basins (up to 20%). While the westerlies are projected to reduce their presence in the mid-latitudes and intensify for the high latitudes associated with the poleward extratropical circulation. As a result, coastal risk will be triggered in transitional wave climate regions, in addition to the risk induced by sea-level rise and storm wave generated, by spatial and frequency changes in the prevailing wave climates that will reach regions where up to now they have not, impacting future coastal environments.