A Vaccination-Based Mathematical Model for Reducing Malaria Transmission

A Vaccination-Based Mathematical Model for Reducing Malaria Transmission | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article A Vaccination-Based Mathematical Model for Reducing Malaria Transmission Agbata Benedict Celestine, Mehmet Gümüş, Homan Emadifar, Aseel Smerat This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7349050/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Malaria is a mosquito-borne infectious disease affecting humans and other animals, with symptoms including fever, fatigue, vomiting, and headaches, and severe cases can lead to jaundice, seizures, coma, or death. In this seminar work, we developed a mathematical model to study the control of malaria incorporating the effects of vaccination. We investigated the positivity of solutions and established the conditions necessary for the existence and uniqueness of the model. The sensitivity analysis revealed that parameters with positive sensitivity indices, such as the contact rates between susceptible humans and infected mosquitoes, significantly impact the disease's prevalence. Therefore, reducing these contact rates through control measures can mitigate malaria spread. Conversely, the recovery rate (q) has a negative sensitivity index, indicating that increasing the recovery rate via effective vaccination and treatment helps curb malaria transmission. Numerical simulations demonstrated that effective control measures, including high vaccination rate and treatment, lead to a significant decrease in the number of infected individuals and vectors. Specifically, Figs. 3a through 3h showed that the number of susceptible and infected individuals and vectors can be reduced to zero, suggesting that malaria can be effectively controlled and potentially eradicated from the population. We obtained the basic reproduction number ( \(\left( {{R_0}} \right)\) and showed that the disease-free equilibrium is locally and asymptotically stable when \({R_0}<1\) , indicating that malaria can be eradicated within a finite period. Mathematical model basic reproduction number vaccination malaria computer simulation Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7349050","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":504921006,"identity":"9f762300-c4b6-408d-8b72-c55ab667658b","order_by":0,"name":"Agbata Benedict Celestine","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"","institution":"Confluence University of Science and Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Agbata","middleName":"Benedict","lastName":"Celestine","suffix":""},{"id":504921007,"identity":"d222c624-391a-4552-8f97-3b95a85b926b","order_by":1,"name":"Mehmet Gümüş","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Zonguldak Bulent Ecevit University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mehmet","middleName":"","lastName":"Gümüş","suffix":""},{"id":504921008,"identity":"e710c316-0f67-4f28-9814-f015bfc0e7a8","order_by":2,"name":"Homan Emadifar","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Saveetha University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Homan","middleName":"","lastName":"Emadifar","suffix":""},{"id":504921009,"identity":"a85f7a96-cd33-40b5-bbe7-4ed5920b7dbc","order_by":3,"name":"Aseel Smerat","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Al-Ahliyya Amman University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Aseel","middleName":"","lastName":"Smerat","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-08-11 18:38:17","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7349050/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7349050/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":91148308,"identity":"b70dc663-3f45-47ce-bf50-eab26cdf4736","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-09-12 06:43:54","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":614200,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"MALARIAARTICLEREVISED.GG.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7349050/v1_covered_8b15b8dd-9f2e-4b5f-9feb-c07ddc13337e.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"A Vaccination-Based Mathematical Model for Reducing Malaria Transmission","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Mathematical model, basic reproduction number, vaccination, malaria, computer simulation","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7349050/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7349050/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eMalaria is a mosquito-borne infectious disease affecting humans and other animals, with symptoms including fever, fatigue, vomiting, and headaches, and severe cases can lead to jaundice, seizures, coma, or death. In this seminar work, we developed a mathematical model to study the control of malaria incorporating the effects of vaccination. We investigated the positivity of solutions and established the conditions necessary for the existence and uniqueness of the model. The sensitivity analysis revealed that parameters with positive sensitivity indices, such as the contact rates between susceptible humans and infected mosquitoes, significantly impact the disease's prevalence. Therefore, reducing these contact rates through control measures can mitigate malaria spread. Conversely, the recovery rate (q) has a negative sensitivity index, indicating that increasing the recovery rate via effective vaccination and treatment helps curb malaria transmission. Numerical simulations demonstrated that effective control measures, including high vaccination rate and treatment, lead to a significant decrease in the number of infected individuals and vectors. Specifically, Figs.\u0026nbsp;3a through 3h showed that the number of susceptible and infected individuals and vectors can be reduced to zero, suggesting that malaria can be effectively controlled and potentially eradicated from the population. We obtained the basic reproduction number (\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\left( {{R_0}} \\right)\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e and showed that the disease-free equilibrium is locally and asymptotically stable when \u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\({R_0}\u0026lt;1\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e, indicating that malaria can be eradicated within a finite period.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"A Vaccination-Based Mathematical Model for Reducing Malaria Transmission","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-08-25 05:12:52","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7349050/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"b7be2fae-9dbf-43f3-a05d-278af59ff709","owner":[],"postedDate":"August 25th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-09-05T05:08:40+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-08-25 05:12:52","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7349050","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7349050","identity":"rs-7349050","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}