The impact of global warming on U.S. hurricane landfall

The impact of global warming on U.S. hurricane landfall | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article The impact of global warming on U.S. hurricane landfall Nathan Sparks, Ralf Toumi This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5208433/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The projection of hurricane activity under climate change continues to be challenging. Here the new Imperial College Storm Model (IRIS) was used to analyse the impact of global warming on North Atlantic hurricane activity. The model assumes increases of potential intensity as the principal cause of change and this allows study of both recent trends and projections for the first time in a consistent way. The recent observed hurricane intensification is simulated but underestimated. For a +2°C global warming scenario hurricanes of intensity Category 4 and above become 62% more likely in the basin and nearly two times (92%) more likely at landfall. The future number of hurricanes is also uncertain and its impact is examined by sensitivity studies. Reduction of the basin count offsets warming driven landfall frequency increases but only for weaker storms. The increased frequency of the most damaging landfalling hurricanes is controlled by changes in potential intensity. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Atmospheric science/Atmospheric dynamics Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate change impacts Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. 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