Worst-Case European Heat and Drought Storylines generated using Ensemble Boosting

Worst-Case European Heat and Drought Storylines generated using Ensemble Boosting | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Worst-Case European Heat and Drought Storylines generated using Ensemble Boosting Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Urs Beyerle, Magdalena Mittermeier, Robert Vautard, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7113183/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Heat and drought extremes pose escalating socio-economic and ecological risks, yet the most severe combinations of these high-impact extremes possible today remain poorly understood. Using thousands of plausible ensemble-boosting current climate storylines, we reveal the risk for more intense drought compounding with far more extreme heat and fi re weather than ever experienced over Europe in the recent past. The most extreme boosted heatwaves surpass historical extremes in both intensity and particularly in persistence, and also exceed levels considered extreme in a 3°C warmer world by large margins. Some of the most extreme heatwaves arise under severe soil moisture depletion, while others develop under strong surface temperature gradients in the North Atlantic and extreme heat in the nearby Mediterranean and Atlantic basins, underscoring the diversity of pathways to worst-case conditions. Furthermore, our work reveals an additional risk: worst-case heatwaves occur predominantly after another extreme heatwave. This highlights the potential for aggravated impacts due to decreased recovery times and intensifi ed heat stress on humans, ecosystems and infrastructure made more vulnerable by the fi rst event. Given the scale, intensity, and unprecedented successive and compounding nature of these worst-case storylines, we underscore the urgent need for well-informed adaptation strategies that suffi ciently refl ect these risks. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7113183","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":485640301,"identity":"fbc7c56e-499b-43d4-aada-e64fc5c11117","order_by":0,"name":"Laura Suarez-Gutierrez","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABDElEQVRIie2RsUoDMRjHv4/AuQSzpljxFT4JqEPBV7mj4JSh4HJTOBDuloLrFUFfoaUvcJA1+A5F6NThwOUGB9NKoVJy6CaS3xDyh/zI/0sAIpE/yOm31E62KxYAExAhJTkMWNNeIRgUP1EYp/22TzlxV20HJnt8svZ9ROZCACtXHYG8DjgJ12o2BZvVr3ep0mQvZwVWyl8nh02omFbAockKx2msqUmpwfLMFzMyVExsFH74Yi9OtPaGTHrrlcG2WFCRWjEOLJs7jg9ALCXAUvJeZX3PhmTVwiUKp36W2u5mkUFFiPESN7k5f3bsre1y/2JVtV51+SiofEGHge0+q184bvu745FIJPLf+QQH5kkfwNmmuQAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Laura","middleName":"","lastName":"Suarez-Gutierrez","suffix":""},{"id":485640302,"identity":"e8a82de4-a9c1-4c88-bd7f-c7d2b403c620","order_by":1,"name":"Urs Beyerle","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6464-0838","institution":"Swiss Federal Institute of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Urs","middleName":"","lastName":"Beyerle","suffix":""},{"id":485640303,"identity":"ab930b15-a756-4a3b-a94d-4098fb9c3485","order_by":2,"name":"Magdalena Mittermeier","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Magdalena","middleName":"","lastName":"Mittermeier","suffix":""},{"id":485640304,"identity":"f378e5c3-7b6a-41b8-a06c-97426955741c","order_by":3,"name":"Robert Vautard","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"IPSL","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Robert","middleName":"","lastName":"Vautard","suffix":""},{"id":485640305,"identity":"ffa9900e-b1d4-4c32-a420-a17b3229e219","order_by":4,"name":"Erich Fischer","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1931-6737","institution":"ETH Zurich","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Erich","middleName":"","lastName":"Fischer","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-07-13 12:20:08","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7113183/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7113183/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":87561963,"identity":"cbc129da-83db-48d0-969d-3c284443e895","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-25 08:38:33","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":5086567,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"worsthdstorylinesSUBMITTEDJuly2025.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7113183/v1_covered_525a9bf3-d820-4e4d-831f-ee2d0833e466.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Worst-Case European Heat and Drought Storylines generated using Ensemble Boosting","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7113183/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7113183/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eHeat and drought extremes pose escalating socio-economic and ecological risks, yet the most severe combinations of these high-impact extremes possible today remain poorly understood. 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