Hydrological modeling for estimating under-construction reservoir lifespan in a tropical Indonesia mountainous watershed

Hydrological modeling for estimating under-construction reservoir lifespan in a tropical Indonesia mountainous watershed | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Hydrological modeling for estimating under-construction reservoir lifespan in a tropical Indonesia mountainous watershed Firdaus Rakhman Saputra, Nugroho Christanto This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7941491/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 13 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Hydrological models have become essential for analyzing watershed responses and supporting watershed management, particularly in tropical regions. Bener Reservoir catchment area (BRCA) in Indonesia is a tropical mountainous watershed. Due to high annually rainfall and high extensive agricultural, sedimentation has increased, which affects the service life of the under-construction reservoir. This study analyzes erosion proneness, estimates sedimentation rate, and predicts the reservoir’s service life using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the modified Brune method for sediment trap efficiency. The service life is determined through changes in the reservoir capacity curve using the empirical area reduction method (EARM). SWAT model results are calibrated and validated with observed monthly discharge and sediment load data from 2009 to 2022. The performance of model was evaluated using Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R2), and percent bias (PBIAS). Validation for discharge shows NSE = 0.889, R2 = 0.890, and PBIAS = 0.86%, while sediment load validation results in NSE = 0.582, R2 = 0.730, and PBIAS = 11.67%. The estimated average erosion rate in the catchment area is 176.9 tons/hectare/year, while the sedimentation rate is 574,611 tons/year (499,662 m³/year in volume). The study predicts that the reservoir’s service life, based on full dead storage capacity, is 51 years after becoming operational—just one year longer than originally planned. These findings highlight the impact of land use on sedimentation and emphasize the need for watershed management to extend the reservoir's lifespan. Hydrological Modeling Mountainous Watershed Reservoir Sedimentation Soil and Water Assessment Tool Tropical Region Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 20 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 14 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 03 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 03 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 02 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 02 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 02 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 02 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 Dec, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 01 Dec, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 27 Oct, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 27 Oct, 2025 First submitted to journal 24 Oct, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7941491","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":560014459,"identity":"49e40ae9-2d04-4c2f-a4e2-82937f9b93a3","order_by":0,"name":"Firdaus Rakhman 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Bener Reservoir catchment area (BRCA) in Indonesia is a tropical mountainous watershed. Due to high annually rainfall and high extensive agricultural, sedimentation has increased, which affects the service life of the under-construction reservoir. This study analyzes erosion proneness, estimates sedimentation rate, and predicts the reservoir’s service life using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the modified Brune method for sediment trap efficiency. The service life is determined through changes in the reservoir capacity curve using the empirical area reduction method (EARM). SWAT model results are calibrated and validated with observed monthly discharge and sediment load data from 2009 to 2022. The performance of model was evaluated using Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R2), and percent bias (PBIAS). Validation for discharge shows NSE = 0.889, R2 = 0.890, and PBIAS = 0.86%, while sediment load validation results in NSE = 0.582, R2 = 0.730, and PBIAS = 11.67%. The estimated average erosion rate in the catchment area is 176.9 tons/hectare/year, while the sedimentation rate is 574,611 tons/year (499,662 m³/year in volume). The study predicts that the reservoir’s service life, based on full dead storage capacity, is 51 years after becoming operational—just one year longer than originally planned. 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