Beyond the battlefield: how conflict type drives acute child malnutrition in Africa

Beyond the battlefield: how conflict type drives acute child malnutrition in Africa | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Beyond the battlefield: how conflict type drives acute child malnutrition in Africa Thomas Jideofor Ogbu, Rebecca Louise Jones, Debarati Guha-Sapir This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7935195/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 12 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Background: Continuance of global progress toward the eradication of malnutrition requires the steering of resources to few, disproportionally affected areas. Armed conflict is a key driver of malnutrition, yet the quantified effects on acute child malnutrition, specifically, are lacking, as well as exploration of potential heterogenous effects by conflict type. Methods: We link nutrition data from 523 small-scale surveys held in the Complex Emergency Database, conducted across 11 conflict-affected African countries between 1998 and 2017, with conflict data from the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict database. The effects of armed conflict on global acute malnutrition (GAM) and severe acute malnutrition (SAM), distinguishing by state-based and non-state conflicts, were estimated using a Bayesian beta-regression approach. Findings: The estimated average prevalence of GAM and SAM was 12.03% and 2.17%, respectively in populations affected by state-based conflict. Under non-state conflict, the average prevalence of GAM and SAM was significantly higher (p > 0.05) at 17.52% and 5.31%, respectively. In addition, heterogenous effects by conflict type were found for the covariates: military expenditure, overseas development assistance, and climate variability. Interpretation: This study is the first to reveal heterogenous effects on malnutrition by conflict type; a significantly higher burden of acute child malnutrition was found in populations affected by non-state conflict relative to state-based conflict. Hence, humanitarian resources should first be directed to areas affected by non-state conflict to accelerate progress toward the eradication of malnutrition. Funding: This research was funded by Riksbankens Jubileumsfond through the programme Societies at Risk, Uppsala University, Sweden. Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files BMCPublicHealthOJGSSupplementary.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 15 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 14 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 13 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 13 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 19 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 17 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 15 Nov, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 10 Nov, 2025 Editor invited by journal 05 Nov, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 05 Nov, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 05 Nov, 2025 First submitted to journal 23 Oct, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7935195","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":546562608,"identity":"1b808da6-cc5a-43f7-97d0-95c1cbdea643","order_by":0,"name":"Thomas Jideofor 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