Transition from non-diabetes to diabetes: a population-based longitudinal study in Vietnamese individuals

Objective This study sought to determine the incidence of T2DM and identify risk factors among a Vietnamese urban cohort without previous T2DM diagnoses to support early intervention.

This population-based prospective study included 1971 individuals (1368 women) free of T2DM at baseline. Participants were re-assessed after a median follow-up of 2.0 years. Glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels were measured using high-pressure liquid chromatography (HPLC) analyzers (ADAMS A1c HA-8160, Arkray, Kyoto, Japan). T2DM was defined as an HbA1c value ≥ 6.5%, while prediabetes was defined as an HbA1c value between 5.7% and 6.4%. Incident T2DM was identified as newly developed diabetes from a non-diabetic status. The association between potential risk factors and T2DM was analyzed using logistic regression.

At baseline, 1137 participants (58%) were classified as ‘Normal’ and 834 (42%) as ‘Pre-diabetes’. Over the follow-up, 16% of initially normal individuals progressed to prediabetes, and 10% of those with prediabetes progressed to diabetes. Overall, 4.3% transitioned to diabetes. Advancing age (OR per year: 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01 to 1.06) and higher BMI (OR per unit: 1.20; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.27) were significantly associated with an increased risk of developing T2DM. A predictive model incorporating age, body mass index (BMI), and baseline HbA1c resulted in an area under the ROC curve of 0.90. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Funding Statement The author(s) received no specific funding for this work. Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: The study's procedures and protocols were approved by the research and ethics committee of the People's Hospital 115 on August 6, 2015 (approval number: 297/BV-NCKH). I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes Data Availability Some or all datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are not publicly available but are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.