Prediction of Long-term Carbon Absorption by Applying Regeneration Scenarios for the Forests in South Korea

Prediction of Long-term Carbon Absorption by Applying Regeneration Scenarios for the Forests in South Korea | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Prediction of Long-term Carbon Absorption by Applying Regeneration Scenarios for the Forests in South Korea Soon Gil Kwon, Junbeum Kim, Yong Woo Hwang, Jean-Christophe Lata This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4432582/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract As global warming has become a critical environmental issue, carbon neutrality is required to respond to rapidly changing environmental policies in response to climate change. Forests, the core of carbon absorption sources, are important to achieve carbon neutrality in South Korea; thus, forest management, particularly afforestation, is emerging as an essential factor. Several forest-related studies have been conducted to improve carbon absorption; however, only a few have focused on direct afforestation studies from a long-term perspective. South Korea successfully implemented intensive greening projects in the 1960s and 1970s. However, intensive afforestation is currently causing a severe problem of age-class imbalance, and the carbon absorption rate of forests is expected to decrease sharply in the future, indicating the importance of forest management. This study applied regeneration scenarios to overcome this challenge. The cumulative carbon absorption value for 90 years, from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2109, was set as the baseline. Various changes were made following the circular economy trend for the species and age classes distributed throughout the country, resulting in multiple outcomes of the regeneration scenarios. Comparing the results of this study with the statistics reported by the Ministry of Environment’s Greenhouse Gas Information Center, the difference in the maximum absorption sources confirmed that forest absorption sources, which had been reported to be 6.26% in 2019, could increase up to 8.74% by 2109. In conclusion, forest management is a crucial carbon-neutral strategy that needs to be implemented at the national level. Formulating a detailed plan after determining the long-term direction of forests is important. A more systematic approach should be used for planning and implementing afforestation in the future. forest management representative afforestation species regeneration scenarios long-term carbon absorption Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4432582","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":306618991,"identity":"d43f1289-5e90-4da6-bb50-066ed2ce82df","order_by":0,"name":"Soon Gil Kwon","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Inha University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Soon","middleName":"Gil","lastName":"Kwon","suffix":""},{"id":306618992,"identity":"a75d1430-db97-4ecd-bbb5-0c23d89ebc4f","order_by":1,"name":"Junbeum Kim","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAu0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACxgYGNjBDgpmB8QGIwd5AghZmA4YEAwaeA4QtgmoBMiSI0sI8I/fYg49t2xgk27nTqnl//GHgkSagh3FGXrrhzLbbDNLMvNtu84Bs4UsgpCXHTJoXqEUOpsWeh4DDwFr+QrUUg20hSgsj1GHMxGnpeWNu2HPuNo9kM+9myTlpxjwEtRi255g9+FF2W07i/NmNH97YyMkR1tIAoeHqCGlgYJAnqGIUjIJRMApGAQBQtTZR6vWjUwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"University of Technology of Troyes","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Junbeum","middleName":"","lastName":"Kim","suffix":""},{"id":306618993,"identity":"915c27b6-6975-4d21-ae97-55c6acc7e98d","order_by":2,"name":"Yong Woo Hwang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Inha University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yong","middleName":"Woo","lastName":"Hwang","suffix":""},{"id":306618994,"identity":"8a9e8f09-f682-4af9-a13f-2b1419a32f4a","order_by":3,"name":"Jean-Christophe Lata","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Sorbonne University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jean-Christophe","middleName":"","lastName":"Lata","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-05-16 17:26:00","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4432582/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4432582/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":57765142,"identity":"06457a78-8207-4c6a-a599-5f72d5288a8f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-06-05 10:32:47","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1130499,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"PredictionofLongtermCarbonAbsorptionfinal.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-4432582/v1_covered_239be536-7795-408e-bacf-2d8b4a823cf2.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Prediction of Long-term Carbon Absorption by Applying Regeneration Scenarios for the Forests in South Korea","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"forest management, representative afforestation species, regeneration scenarios, long-term carbon absorption","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4432582/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-4432582/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eAs global warming has become a critical environmental issue, carbon neutrality is required to respond to rapidly changing environmental policies in response to climate change. Forests, the core of carbon absorption sources, are important to achieve carbon neutrality in South Korea; thus, forest management, particularly afforestation, is emerging as an essential factor. Several forest-related studies have been conducted to improve carbon absorption; however, only a few have focused on direct afforestation studies from a long-term perspective. South Korea successfully implemented intensive greening projects in the 1960s and 1970s. However, intensive afforestation is currently causing a severe problem of age-class imbalance, and the carbon absorption rate of forests is expected to decrease sharply in the future, indicating the importance of forest management. This study applied regeneration scenarios to overcome this challenge.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe cumulative carbon absorption value for 90 years, from January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2109, was set as the baseline. Various changes were made following the circular economy trend for the species and age classes distributed throughout the country, resulting in multiple outcomes of the regeneration scenarios.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eComparing the results of this study with the statistics reported by the Ministry of Environment\u0026rsquo;s Greenhouse Gas Information Center, the difference in the maximum absorption sources confirmed that forest absorption sources, which had been reported to be 6.26% in 2019, could increase up to 8.74% by 2109. In conclusion, forest management is a crucial carbon-neutral strategy that needs to be implemented at the national level. Formulating a detailed plan after determining the long-term direction of forests is important. A more systematic approach should be used for planning and implementing afforestation in the future.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Prediction of Long-term Carbon Absorption by Applying Regeneration Scenarios for the Forests in South Korea","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-06-04 18:44:05","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-4432582/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"92e3bea0-8e85-4013-a062-0ece704752ea","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 4th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2024-06-05T10:24:38+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2024-06-04 18:44:05","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-4432582","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-4432582","identity":"rs-4432582","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"qtupq5eGEP_6zYnWcrvyt","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}