A calibrated dark-siren tension with General-Relativity propagation

A calibrated dark-siren tension with General-Relativity propagation | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Physical Sciences - Article A calibrated dark-siren tension with General-Relativity propagation aiden smith This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8861678/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The Hubble constant tension reflects a persistent mismatch between early-Universe and late-Universe inferences of cosmic expansion. Gravitational-wave “dark sirens” offer a complementary route to late-time inference because they carry an absolute distance scale without requiring an electromagnetic counterpart. Here we ask a sharper question than standard distance–redshift fitting: does the observed GWTC-3 catalogue prefer a non-General-Relativity propagation law in which gravitational-wave amplitudes decay differently with redshift? We report a calibrated propagation anomaly in 36 GWTC-3 dark sirens. Relative to an internal GR baseline, a fixed modified-propagation history yields a joint predictive-score shift of ∆LPDtot = +3.670 (a Bayes-factor proxy of exp(∆LPD) ≈ 39 in this fixed scoring framework), while 512 matched GR-consistent injection catalogues never approach the observed scale. If physical, this preference implies that GR-locked distance inference can act as a hidden systematic in late-time cosmology and must be tested as seriously as conventional selection and calibration effects. Physical sciences/Astronomy and planetary science/Astronomy and astrophysics/General relativity and gravity Physical sciences/Astronomy and planetary science/Astronomy and astrophysics/Cosmology Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8861678","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Physical Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":591975757,"identity":"0d9b55e9-7176-470f-b9bf-e315d5dc91dd","order_by":0,"name":"aiden smith","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0004-6025-2936","institution":"Independent Data Analyst","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"aiden","middleName":"","lastName":"smith","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-12 11:41:39","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8861678/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8861678/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":103504414,"identity":"570e3761-44f6-4b20-ad0e-61391fa9f654","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-26 13:19:46","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":516197,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"darksirennature.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8861678/v1_covered_6e46a151-e7f9-4450-b0b4-1a631fd87f1f.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"A calibrated dark-siren tension with General-Relativity propagation","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8861678/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8861678/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"The Hubble constant tension reflects a persistent mismatch between early-Universe\r\nand late-Universe inferences of cosmic expansion. Gravitational-wave “dark sirens”\r\noffer a complementary route to late-time inference because they carry an absolute\r\ndistance scale without requiring an electromagnetic counterpart. Here we ask a sharper\r\nquestion than standard distance–redshift fitting: does the observed GWTC-3 catalogue\r\nprefer a non-General-Relativity propagation law in which gravitational-wave amplitudes\r\ndecay differently with redshift? We report a calibrated propagation anomaly in 36\r\nGWTC-3 dark sirens. Relative to an internal GR baseline, a fixed modified-propagation\r\nhistory yields a joint predictive-score shift of ∆LPDtot = +3.670 (a Bayes-factor proxy\r\nof exp(∆LPD) ≈ 39 in this fixed scoring framework), while 512 matched GR-consistent\r\ninjection catalogues never approach the observed scale. If physical, this preference\r\nimplies that GR-locked distance inference can act as a hidden systematic in late-time\r\ncosmology and must be tested as seriously as conventional selection and calibration\r\neffects.","manuscriptTitle":"A calibrated dark-siren tension with General-Relativity propagation","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-02-19 14:02:55","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8861678/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"9d83f70f-4674-49f9-8b1f-b3617bafe9a9","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 19th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":62989218,"name":"Physical sciences/Astronomy and planetary science/Astronomy and astrophysics/General relativity and gravity"},{"id":62989219,"name":"Physical sciences/Astronomy and planetary science/Astronomy and astrophysics/Cosmology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-02-20T14:37:08+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-02-19 14:02:55","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8861678","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8861678","identity":"rs-8861678","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}