Nearly unbiased estimator of adult population size based on within-cohort half-sibling pairs incorporating flexible reproductive variation

Close-kin mark-recapture (CKMR) is a kinship-based method for estimating adult abundance. However, the application of CKMR is limited to using a kinship relationship that is not affected by family-correlated survivorship, which leads to a biased estimation. We developed a nearly unbiased estimator of the number of mothers in a population, which is based on the known maternal half-sibling relationship found within the same cohort. Our method allowed for variance of the averaged offspring number per mother (between-age variation) and for variance of the offspring number among mothers with the same reproductive potential (within-age variation). Estimators of its variance and coefficient variation were also provided. The performance of the estimators was quantitatively evaluated by running an individual-based model. Our results provide guidance for (i) a sample size to archive the required accuracy and precision when the order of mother size is available and (ii) a degree of uncertainty regarding the estimated mother size when information about the mother size is not available. Taken together, these findings offer an opportunity to shed light on the usefulness of analysing within-cohort half-sibling pairs and will greatly widen the scope of the CKMR method.