The Effect of Social Media Information on College Major Choices in China: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis

The Effect of Social Media Information on College Major Choices in China: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article The Effect of Social Media Information on College Major Choices in China: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis Lijing Ma, Yilong Wu, Qingsong Li, Chuanhua Zeng This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7581289/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 14 Apr, 2026 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 11 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The choice of a college major is a critical decision for millions of students in China, yet it is often made under conditions of significant information asymmetry. The recent rise of social media has introduced influential, unregulated actors into this high-stakes environment. This study provides a large-scale causal analysis of a social media information shock on college major choices in China. Leveraging the "Zhang Xuefeng Phenomenon", an event where a prominent influencer vehemently discouraged Journalism and Communication majors, as a natural experiment, we employ a difference-in-differences (DID) design on a comprehensive dataset of university admission ranks from 2017 to 2023, covering over 3.3 million observations. Our findings reveal that the influencer's negative signal caused the admission rank for Journalism and Communication to worsen by a substantial 13.1% across all institutions and by 24.7% at elite "Double First-Class Initiative" universities. A significant asymmetric response is identified: this negative impact was nearly double the magnitude of the positive effect observed for the endorsed Computer Science major, suggesting student decisions are driven more by risk aversion than by the pursuit of opportunity. The influencer's pragmatic, employment-focused ideology also generated positive spillover effects, boosting the popularity of related fields, such as transportation. Furthermore, a triple-difference (DDD) analysis shows the shock's impact was significantly weaker in provinces with higher per capita GDP, indicating that stronger local economic contexts can buffer against centralized negative signals. This research provides robust evidence that social media influencers have become powerful new players in the educational landscape, capable of shaping national human capital flows and posing novel challenges for students, universities, and policymakers. Social science/Education Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 14 Apr, 2026 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 06 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 05 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 15 Jan, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 07 Oct, 2025 Reviews received at journal 03 Oct, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 02 Oct, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 01 Oct, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 01 Oct, 2025 Editor invited by journal 22 Sep, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 19 Sep, 2025 First submitted to journal 19 Sep, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7581289","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":528190931,"identity":"1dacf8ee-14bc-49c3-8345-eb755914ede9","order_by":0,"name":"Lijing Ma","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA0klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFAC5oYDEgYMDPwMPGAeMVoYIVokG0jRAqYMDhCrRbf9YOMBi4I7dptv5B6TYKiwTmxgP3sArxazM4kghz1L3nbmXJoEw5n0xAaevAT8Wg6AtRxONjveYybB2HY4sUGCxwC/lvMPIVqMm3mAWv4Ro+UGxBY7A3aQLQ1EaYHYkiBx5oyxRcKxdOM2nhxCDks+/Fniz2F7/hk5hjc+1FjL9rOfwa8FBJglGBgSG0CsBCBmI6geCBg/MDDYE6NwFIyCUTAKRigAAH7VSRQ4iMlAAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Xihua University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Lijing","middleName":"","lastName":"Ma","suffix":""},{"id":528190932,"identity":"4687e4bc-6de0-44e6-8e7f-9e5e8be0af99","order_by":1,"name":"Yilong Wu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Xihua University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yilong","middleName":"","lastName":"Wu","suffix":""},{"id":528190933,"identity":"ac44cfa2-6162-4e15-aebb-4a189e26c92d","order_by":2,"name":"Qingsong Li","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Xihua University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Qingsong","middleName":"","lastName":"Li","suffix":""},{"id":528190934,"identity":"d5885ad4-c147-4aaf-8eed-09c8dbdcf351","order_by":3,"name":"Chuanhua Zeng","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Xihua University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chuanhua","middleName":"","lastName":"Zeng","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-09-10 09:38:20","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7581289/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7581289/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-47742-w","type":"published","date":"2026-04-14T15:59:48+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":93602098,"identity":"efb5b09e-4ad0-4a27-87b2-b4dfcbe16a91","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-15 14:49:01","extension":"json","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":6168,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"5d480938fb9a4d14a07a53d4097317ab.json","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7581289/v1/3c2e3575e679a4ed41ede451.json"},{"id":107351042,"identity":"a5777856-7cba-4f47-840a-d287417b8615","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-20 16:08:16","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1613613,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"submissionSR.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7581289/v1_covered_325763d5-d2cb-4181-a906-7694b6e4aa48.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"The Effect of Social Media Information on College Major Choices in China: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7581289/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7581289/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"The choice of a college major is a critical decision for millions of students in China, yet it is often made under conditions of significant information asymmetry. The recent rise of social media has introduced influential, unregulated actors into this high-stakes environment. This study provides a large-scale causal analysis of a social media information shock on college major choices in China. Leveraging the \"Zhang Xuefeng Phenomenon\", an event where a prominent influencer vehemently discouraged Journalism and Communication majors, as a natural experiment, we employ a difference-in-differences (DID) design on a comprehensive dataset of university admission ranks from 2017 to 2023, covering over 3.3 million observations. Our findings reveal that the influencer's negative signal caused the admission rank for Journalism and Communication to worsen by a substantial 13.1% across all institutions and by 24.7% at elite \"Double First-Class Initiative\" universities. 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