Undisturbed forest canopies slow understory warming by one-third across Europe

Undisturbed forest canopies slow understory warming by one-third across Europe | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Undisturbed forest canopies slow understory warming by one-third across Europe Stef Haesen, Cornelius Senf, Rupert Seidl, Jonas Lembrechts, Jonathan Lenoir, and 48 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8811214/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Forests play a critical role in regulating climate change impacts by buffering climate extremes below the canopy. Whether sub-canopy microclimate temperatures warm at a different rate than macroclimate temperatures (in open reference situations) remains, however, an unresolved question. Here, we empirically quantified the magnitude of thermal decoupling between macroclimate and microclimate warming across European forests at high spatial resolution. Using a spatially-explicit machine learning framework that integrates 4,376 in situ summer temperature time series with historical canopy cover dynamics, we reconstructed four decades (1984–2023) of forest microclimate warming across Europe. We reveal that sub-canopy summer temperatures (0.32°C/decade) are warming at a rate approximately 37% slower than macroclimate temperature (0.51°C/decade). However, forest disturbances can abruptly cancel-out thermal decoupling, exposing understories to conditions equivalent to over two decades of additional macroclimate warming. Our findings highlight that thermal decoupling is a key mechanism through which intact forests moderate climate warming, while disturbances can abruptly erase this effect, underscoring the need to explicitly consider thermal decoupling in climate change impact assessments on forest biodiversity and functioning. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Forest ecology Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Biodiversity Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files HaesenNCCsupplementary.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8811214","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":605425886,"identity":"685c053a-c6b1-4661-881e-fa4776785bc6","order_by":0,"name":"Stef 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Europe","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature 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Whether sub-canopy microclimate temperatures warm at a different rate than macroclimate temperatures (in open reference situations) remains, however, an unresolved question. Here, we empirically quantified the magnitude of thermal decoupling between macroclimate and microclimate warming across European forests at high spatial resolution. Using a spatially-explicit machine learning framework that integrates 4,376 in situ summer temperature time series with historical canopy cover dynamics, we reconstructed four decades (1984–2023) of forest microclimate warming across Europe. We reveal that sub-canopy summer temperatures (0.32°C/decade) are warming at a rate approximately 37% slower than macroclimate temperature (0.51°C/decade). However, forest disturbances can abruptly cancel-out thermal decoupling, exposing understories to conditions equivalent to over two decades of additional macroclimate warming. Our findings highlight that thermal decoupling is a key mechanism through which intact forests moderate climate warming, while disturbances can abruptly erase this effect, underscoring the need to explicitly consider thermal decoupling in climate change impact assessments on forest biodiversity and functioning.","manuscriptTitle":"Undisturbed forest canopies slow understory warming by one-third across Europe","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-03-16 01:16:44","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8811214/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-climate-change","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nclimate","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Climate Change](http://www.nature.com/nclimate/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Climate Change","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Research","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"93a2e11a-11b0-4914-a0a7-d9df08ade270","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 16th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":64432372,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change"},{"id":64432373,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Forest ecology"},{"id":64432374,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Biodiversity"},{"id":64432375,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-08T01:35:23+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-03-16 01:16:44","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8811214","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8811214","identity":"rs-8811214","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}