A Hybrid Model of Predicting Land Use Scenarios for Sustainable Urban Planning in Debre Birhan City, Ethiopia

A Hybrid Model of Predicting Land Use Scenarios for Sustainable Urban Planning in Debre Birhan City, Ethiopia | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article A Hybrid Model of Predicting Land Use Scenarios for Sustainable Urban Planning in Debre Birhan City, Ethiopia Mikir Kassaw Zegeye, Sileshi Azagew, Gebrechristos Nuriye This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8918108/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Understanding future land use land cover dynamics is critical for sustainable urban planning, particularly in rapidly growing secondary cities like Debre Birhan, Ethiopia. This study addresses the pressing challenge of unplanned urban expansion, which threatens agricultural lands, forest ecosystems, and water resources. The objective of the study was to predict future land use scenarios using a hybrid spatio-temporal model integrating Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov chain and Multi-Layer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network (MLP-ANN). Remote sensing and GIS tools, alongside TerrSet software were employed to analyze historical land use changes (1984–2023) and simulate future scenarios for 2062. The model calibration was conducted and achieved high accuracy (kappa > 90%). Results indicate a significant decline in agricultural (11.65%) and forest lands (1.56%), while built-up and industrial areas will expand by 5.38% and 3.18%, respectively by 2062. These trends highlight accelerating urbanization at the expense of food security and ecosystem integrity. The model’s output indicates spatially-targeted planning intervention such as protecting high-risk agricultural zones, conserving forest and riparian buffers and promoting compact urban growth along transport corridors. The hybrid CA-Markov Chain and MLP-ANN approach proved effective in capturing non-linear land use dynamics, offering a robust framework for informed decision-making. Debre Birhan Urbanization LULC hybrid model Urban Expansion Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files pointbypointresponse.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Revision Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 10 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 08 Apr, 2026 Reviews received at journal 04 Apr, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 30 Mar, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 26 Mar, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 26 Mar, 2026 Editor assigned by journal 26 Mar, 2026 Editor invited by journal 25 Mar, 2026 Submission checks completed at journal 25 Mar, 2026 First submitted to journal 25 Mar, 2026 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8918108","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":612735094,"identity":"db9fd93b-2d24-436f-9aa0-87842fa36ffb","order_by":0,"name":"Mikir Kassaw Zegeye","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA7UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACZjaGA0AIAowPeBtAdALxWpgNEFrwamMDYogWNgmitOi2syUerjhjZy/ffsas4u2Owwz87DkGDB9/4NZidpjtwMEzN5ITN5zJMbs598xhBsmeNwaMM/DYYnaYveFgwwfmBAOG3G23edsOMxjcyDFg5iGspd5evv/ttmKQFnuQlj94tQAd1nDjMGPDjdxtzGBbJIBa8HkfqCXhYMOZ44kbbrz/LDn3TDqPxJlnBQd70vBoOX/M+GPDsWqgw9ISP7zdYS3H35688cEPG9xaMAAPiDhAgoZRMApGwSgYBVgAAIBHWtIzQiLbAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Adama Science and Technology University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mikir","middleName":"Kassaw","lastName":"Zegeye","suffix":""},{"id":612735095,"identity":"7a8fddb6-9cae-4f07-94f4-27d2dd5ef836","order_by":1,"name":"Sileshi Azagew","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Adama Science and Technology University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Sileshi","middleName":"","lastName":"Azagew","suffix":""},{"id":612735096,"identity":"4ac803f4-ffa3-4653-bd94-41c1c7864937","order_by":2,"name":"Gebrechristos Nuriye","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Hawassa University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Gebrechristos","middleName":"","lastName":"Nuriye","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-19 15:10:22","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8918108/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8918108/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":105904007,"identity":"bb93dca5-f8fd-4fb3-bb27-6e03a359ad13","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-01 10:00:20","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1223467,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"ManuscriptV5.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8918108/v1_covered_28e06b91-89c3-4ced-b2b3-0372b722bc21.pdf"},{"id":105764942,"identity":"11dd5937-548c-404a-ba1b-77ba6893857f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-30 19:45:30","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":16930,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"pointbypointresponse.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8918108/v1/a7f3d8eb9e9cfeeb064b2c9f.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"A Hybrid Model of Predicting Land Use Scenarios for Sustainable Urban Planning in Debre Birhan City, Ethiopia","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"discover-environment","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"Learn more about [Discover Environment](https://www.springer.com/44274/)","snPcode":"44274","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/44274/3","title":"Discover Environment","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Discover Series","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Debre Birhan, Urbanization, LULC, hybrid model, Urban Expansion","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8918108/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8918108/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eUnderstanding future land use land cover dynamics is critical for sustainable urban planning, particularly in rapidly growing secondary cities like Debre Birhan, Ethiopia. This study addresses the pressing challenge of unplanned urban expansion, which threatens agricultural lands, forest ecosystems, and water resources. The objective of the study was to predict future land use scenarios using a hybrid spatio-temporal model integrating Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov chain and Multi-Layer Perceptron Artificial Neural Network (MLP-ANN). Remote sensing and GIS tools, alongside TerrSet software were employed to analyze historical land use changes (1984\u0026ndash;2023) and simulate future scenarios for 2062. The model calibration was conducted and achieved high accuracy (kappa\u0026thinsp;\u0026gt;\u0026thinsp;90%). Results indicate a significant decline in agricultural (11.65%) and forest lands (1.56%), while built-up and industrial areas will expand by 5.38% and 3.18%, respectively by 2062. These trends highlight accelerating urbanization at the expense of food security and ecosystem integrity. 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