An integrated modeling framework for groundwater contamination risk assessment in arid, data-scarce environments

An integrated modeling framework for groundwater contamination risk assessment in arid, data-scarce environments | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article An integrated modeling framework for groundwater contamination risk assessment in arid, data-scarce environments Elham Rafiei-Sardooi, Hossein Ghazanfarpour, Ali Azareh, Eric J. R. Parteli, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2052252/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract Groundwater contamination risk mapping is one essential measure in groundwater management and quality control. The purpose of the present study is to address this mapping by means of a novel framework, which is more suitable for arid regions than other methods developed in previous work. Specifically, we integrate machine learning tools, interpolation and process-based models with a modified version of DRASTIC-AHP to evaluate groundwater vulnerability to nitrate contamination and to map this contamination in Jiroft plain, Iran. The DRASTIC model provides a tool for evaluating aquifer vulnerability by using seven parameters related to the hydrogeological setting (Depth to water, net Recharge, Aquifer media, Soil media, Topography, Impact of vadose zone, and hydraulic Conductivity), while the criteria ratings and weights of these parameters are evaluated by means of an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). However, to obtain the risk map, the results about groundwater vulnerability are combined here with a contamination hazard map, which we estimate by applying ensemble modeling based, in part, on the occurrence probability predicted from Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Flexible Discriminant Analysis (FDA), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Our integrated modeling framework provides an assessment of both regional patterns of groundwater contamination and an estimate of the impacts of the contamination based on socio-environmental variables, and is particularly suitable for applications based on limited amount of available data. The groundwater contamination risk map obtained from our case study shows that the central and southern regions of the Jiroft plain display high and very high contamination risk, which is associated with high production rate of urban waste in residential lands and an overuse of nitrogen fertilizers in agricultural lands. Therefore, our work is providing new modeling insights for the future assessment of groundwater contamination, with potential impacts for the management and control of water resources in arid and semi-arid environments. Groundwater Contamination Hazard Risk Vulnerability Iran Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-2052252","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":142307284,"identity":"46ab1518-f486-450a-bee3-154f9f0c74cb","order_by":0,"name":"Elham Rafiei-Sardooi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Jiroft","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Elham","middleName":"","lastName":"Rafiei-Sardooi","suffix":""},{"id":142307285,"identity":"21b57f24-613f-49d1-b0d6-112601a4a768","order_by":1,"name":"Hossein Ghazanfarpour","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Hossein","middleName":"","lastName":"Ghazanfarpour","suffix":""},{"id":142307286,"identity":"b1f4dc2a-acc3-4cc0-88fc-8fe4f6c3300c","order_by":2,"name":"Ali Azareh","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA/UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACdsYGMG3A3sBgkMDAwA8RNsCjhRmmhecAWItkD2EtUNpAIgFMQ7XgAfzNzI0ff9TckzOXfGNQ8HCPjYQ9A/PDDwwF93BqkTjM2CwhcazY2HJ2joFBwrM0CR4GNmMJBoNi3NYcZmyQMGBLSNxwG6TlwOE6HgYGMwawt3AAeaAtPxL+JdRvuHkGrAVoC/s3vFoMDjO2SRxsS0gwuMED08KD3xZDoBbLxr4Eww1n0gqAWoB+OcxTLJGAR4vc8fbHN398S5A3OH54m+GPAzYS7O3tGz98+INbCzJgg8QfKKaI0wBU+4BIhaNgFIyCUTDCAAB0Lk55OR1jzwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"University of Jiroft","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ali","middleName":"","lastName":"Azareh","suffix":""},{"id":142307287,"identity":"56b8f022-a2c1-4bb1-94ca-fbe89f338374","order_by":3,"name":"Eric J. 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