Hiding in Plain Sight: Explaining Public Support for Democratic Backsliding in the US, Israel and Germany

Hiding in Plain Sight: Explaining Public Support for Democratic Backsliding in the US, Israel and Germany | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Hiding in Plain Sight: Explaining Public Support for Democratic Backsliding in the US, Israel and Germany Mark Peffley, Robert Rohrschneider, Marc Hutchison, Michal Shamir This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9033981/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract What general orientations of mass publics help to explain their support for democratic backsliding—i.e., the erosion of democratic institutions, rules and norms by the actions of elected leaders? In contrast to the predominant focus of recent survey studies on partisan polarization, we investigate the degree to which several overlooked “illiberal affinities” – i.e., opposition to liberal democracy, support for authoritarian governance (e.g., military rule) and ethno-nationalism – also contribute to backsliding support, even after accounting for partisan orientations. We conducted survey experiments in fall 2023 in the U.S., Israel and Germany, where the histories, institutions and cultures of the three countries vary considerably. We find broadly similar patterns among citizens of the three countries, whose support for backsliding policies that seriously violate democratic norms is dramatically increased by their illiberal affinities. As we conclude from our empirical analysis, these illiberal affinities are “hiding in plain sight” and deserve far more attention in future research. Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files OnlineAppendixSupportforDemorcraticBacksliding.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9033981","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":609089110,"identity":"7867b67f-8c6e-4c5c-971b-23b269e184da","order_by":0,"name":"Mark Peffley","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAArklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJCCDxUFNgwSIBYPkToYZ5wxSCNdy2EStOjObj7YcMDgfOLMGQmMD962EaHF7M6xRKCW24mzJRKYDecSpeVGjvnjD0At8yQS2KR5idOS/xFoyzmQFvbfRGrJYQRqOQByGBszcVruHDMEakk2ntnzsFlyzjlitNxufthwoMJOdsbx5IMf3pQRoQUSHyAgkNhAjHpkLfwHiNQxCkbBKBgFIw4AAPqrPkm5XAlqAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"University of Kentucky","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mark","middleName":"","lastName":"Peffley","suffix":""},{"id":609089111,"identity":"ff63b1b0-b083-4c51-b4fe-77495c57ad64","order_by":1,"name":"Robert Rohrschneider","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Kansas","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Robert","middleName":"","lastName":"Rohrschneider","suffix":""},{"id":609089112,"identity":"383e31ee-4ec3-4340-a59d-8fe2f910df2a","order_by":2,"name":"Marc Hutchison","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Rhode Island","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Marc","middleName":"","lastName":"Hutchison","suffix":""},{"id":609089113,"identity":"f980ab92-c332-4399-8c8b-5509a04ae84d","order_by":3,"name":"Michal Shamir","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tel-Aviv University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Michal","middleName":"","lastName":"Shamir","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-04 21:53:39","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9033981/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9033981/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":105563221,"identity":"a648b439-797a-46b0-a899-ad75e882efca","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-27 12:46:23","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":873989,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"PublicSupportforDemocraticBackslidinganonymous3226.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9033981/v1_covered_b6ecd06e-2271-438e-a8c9-7ba6aecd1aca.pdf"},{"id":105075932,"identity":"91b84ead-e5f8-4d98-b8ec-5abc3b097135","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-20 16:18:22","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":442317,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"OnlineAppendixSupportforDemorcraticBacksliding.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9033981/v1/b39482d95375d6af13baa434.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Hiding in Plain Sight: Explaining Public Support for Democratic Backsliding in the US, Israel and Germany","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9033981/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9033981/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eWhat general orientations of mass publics help to explain their support for democratic backsliding\u0026mdash;i.e., the erosion of democratic institutions, rules and norms by the actions of elected leaders? In contrast to the predominant focus of recent survey studies on partisan polarization, we investigate the degree to which several overlooked \u0026ldquo;illiberal affinities\u0026rdquo; \u0026ndash; i.e., opposition to liberal democracy, support for authoritarian governance (e.g., military rule) and ethno-nationalism \u0026ndash; also contribute to backsliding support, even after accounting for partisan orientations. We conducted survey experiments in fall 2023 in the U.S., Israel and Germany, where the histories, institutions and cultures of the three countries vary considerably. We find broadly similar patterns among citizens of the three countries, whose support for backsliding policies that seriously violate democratic norms is dramatically increased by their illiberal affinities. 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