The Nexus between Political Instability and Human Trafficking: An Urgent Call for Action

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This study aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between political instability and human trafficking by analyzing a panel dataset spanning 2003-2023. Method Employing a dynamic fixed-effect model and system GMM, the findings revealed that how various dimensions of political instability influence human trafficking. Results severe restrictions on civil liberties- particularly the lack of freedom of expression, media freedom, and freedom of association - are strongly associated with higher trafficking rates. Conclusion The absence of these freedoms creates an environment where traffickers can exploit individuals more easily. Additionally, demographic and economic factors, population growth and high unemployment, are positively related with human trafficking, highlighting economic vulnerability as a key driver. As a result, strengthening civil liberties, media freedom, and freedom of association to reduce human trafficking through enhancing economic and non-economic ambitions and showing hope in their lives. " } { "@context": "http://schema.org", "@type": "BreadcrumbList", "itemListElement": [ { "@type": "ListItem", "position": "1", "item": { "@id": "https://f1000research.com/", "name": "Home" } }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": "2", "item": { "@id": "https://f1000research.com/browse/articles", "name": "Browse" } }, { "@type": "ListItem", "position": "3", "item": { "@id": "https://f1000research.com/articles/14-777/v1", "name": "The Nexus between Political Instability and Human Trafficking: An..." } } ] } Home Browse The Nexus between Political Instability and Human Trafficking: An... ALL Metrics - Views Downloads Get PDF Get XML Cite How to cite this article Aragaw A, Abdullahi KT, Ezezew H et al. The Nexus between Political Instability and Human Trafficking: An Urgent Call for Action [version 1; peer review: 1 approved with reservations] . F1000Research 2025, 14 :777 ( https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.154814.1 ) NOTE: If applicable, it is important to ensure the information in square brackets after the title is included in all citations of this article. Close Copy Citation Details Export Export Citation Sciwheel EndNote Ref. Manager Bibtex ProCite Sente EXPORT Select a format first Track Share ▬ ✚ Research Article The Nexus between Political Instability and Human Trafficking: An Urgent Call for Action [version 1; peer review: 1 approved with reservations] Abebe Aragaw https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8491-5635 1 , Kamal Tasiu Abdullahi 2 , Henok Ezezew 3 , Wondwesen Getaneh 4 , Tarekegn Tamiru https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0479-6600 5 Abebe Aragaw https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8491-5635 1 , Kamal Tasiu Abdullahi 2 , [...] Henok Ezezew 3 , Wondwesen Getaneh 4 , Tarekegn Tamiru https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0479-6600 5 PUBLISHED 08 Aug 2025 Author details Author details 1 Economics, Woldia University, Weldiya, Amhara, 400, Ethiopia 2 Economics, Istanbul Universitesi, Fatih, Istanbul, Turkey 3 Economics, Woldia University, Weldiya, Amhara, 400, Ethiopia 4 College of Finance, Management and Development, Ethiopian Civil Service University, Addis Ababa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 5 Business Management, Dire Dawa University, Dire Dawa, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia Abebe Aragaw Roles: Methodology, Writing – Original Draft Preparation Kamal Tasiu Abdullahi Roles: Investigation, Validation, Writing – Review & Editing Henok Ezezew Roles: Conceptualization, Supervision, Writing – Review & Editing Wondwesen Getaneh Roles: Validation, Writing – Review & Editing Tarekegn Tamiru Roles: Supervision, Writing – Review & Editing OPEN PEER REVIEW DETAILS REVIEWER STATUS This article is included in the Human Migration Research gateway. Abstract Background Political instability encompasses a variety of factors that profoundly impact socio-political and economic conditions, potentially exacerbating human trafficking. This study aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between political instability and human trafficking by analyzing a panel dataset spanning 2003-2023. Method Employing a dynamic fixed-effect model and system GMM, the findings revealed that how various dimensions of political instability influence human trafficking. Results severe restrictions on civil liberties- particularly the lack of freedom of expression, media freedom, and freedom of association - are strongly associated with higher trafficking rates. Conclusion The absence of these freedoms creates an environment where traffickers can exploit individuals more easily. Additionally, demographic and economic factors, population growth and high unemployment, are positively related with human trafficking, highlighting economic vulnerability as a key driver. As a result, strengthening civil liberties, media freedom, and freedom of association to reduce human trafficking through enhancing economic and non-economic ambitions and showing hope in their lives. READ ALL READ LESS Keywords political instability, human trafficking, Civil liberty, System GMM Corresponding Author(s) Abebe Aragaw ( [email protected] ) Kamal Tasiu Abdullahi ( [email protected] ) Henok Ezezew ( [email protected] ) Tarekegn Tamiru ( [email protected] ) Close Corresponding authors: Abebe Aragaw, Kamal Tasiu Abdullahi, Henok Ezezew, Tarekegn Tamiru Competing interests: No competing interests were disclosed. Grant information: The author(s) declared that no grants were involved in supporting this work. Copyright: © 2025 Aragaw A et al . This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. How to cite: Aragaw A, Abdullahi KT, Ezezew H et al. The Nexus between Political Instability and Human Trafficking: An Urgent Call for Action [version 1; peer review: 1 approved with reservations] . F1000Research 2025, 14 :777 ( https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.154814.1 ) First published: 08 Aug 2025, 14 :777 ( https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.154814.1 ) Latest published: 08 Aug 2025, 14 :777 ( https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.154814.1 ) 1. Introduction Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, mentioned that through violence, deception, and coercion, those who traffic humans breach fundamental human rights. The exploitative actions of traffickers impact every nation worldwide, undermining and devastating our communities, sense of safety, and the global economy. Political instability and human trafficking have a complex and interconnected relationship ( Van Buren III, Schrempf-Stirling et al., 2021 ). Then, the effect of political unrest on human trafficking is becoming one of the pragmatic areas of research for social scientists. War, social unrest, riots, and ethical clashes forced people to leave their permanent residence and stay in camps or be trafficked to another state illegally. However, political instability and human trafficking nexus may not be defined by its direct effect alone; instead, it creates a hostile environment that forces people to be targeted by traffickers ( Yousaf, 2018 ). Political instability, especially armed conflict or civil unrest, frequently leads to mass displacements ( Lichtenheld, 2020 ). Displaced groups, such as refugees and internally displaced individuals, face heightened risks of human trafficking ( Salleh, Ahmad, et al., 2018 ). Here are some key points: Firstly, political instability tends to weaken governance, law enforcement, and the rule of law, creating a conducive environment for crimes like human trafficking. For instance, corruption may flourish within government bodies, including law enforcement and immigration, allowing traffickers to evade justice and continue their illegal operations. Secondly, political upheaval often triggers economic crises and deepens poverty. Economic instability, limited job opportunities, and deteriorating living conditions increase the vulnerability of individuals, particularly marginalized communities, to trafficking ( Adesina, 2014 ). The urgency for economic survival may lead them into exploitative scenarios, such as forced labor or sex trafficking. Thirdly, traffickers prey on this desperation, luring individuals with false promises of employment, safety, or improved living conditions, only to exploit and traffic them ( Mackenzie, 2020 ). Although research on the impact of political instability on human trafficking is limited, existing studies highlight political instability as a significant factor influencing trafficking determinants. For example, Kabange (2013) outlines the interactions between political stability, private investments, and human rights and suggests that socioeconomic and political crises have a detrimental impact on sustainable development. The paper recommends effective leadership, adherence to principles of good governance, and citizen participation. Particularly, studies on the effect of political instability on human trafficking are limited. These studies can be categorized into two types. The first type categorizes determinant factors of human trafficking into specific strata and analyzes how these strata relate to the occurrence of human trafficking. The second type identifies determinant factors individually and examines their direct correlation with human trafficking occurrences. Cho (2012) conducted a research study on human trafficking and its influencing factors, categorizing them into four groups. The analysis found that criminal aspects, income, globalization-driven migration, and institutions and policies in origin countries are significant factors in human trafficking. Moreover, Akee et al. (2010) contend that ethnic conflicts worsen internal displacement, leading to the separation of individuals from their homes, families, and communities, which in turn restricts their access to economic and social benefits. To the best of our knowledge, the existing research lacks comprehensive studies on the effects of political instability on human trafficking, as it relies solely on qualitative research. This paper aims to address the impact of political instability on human trafficking by incorporating social, political, and economic factors as control variables. The study uses desk reviews for qualitative data and econometric methodologies for quantitative data. The paper employs the system GMM approach and the dynamic fixed effect model for robustness checks. The second section provides a literature review, the third section discusses the data and model specifications, the fourth section presents the results, and the fifth section concludes. 2. Literature review 2.1 Theoretical literature review 2.1.1 Causes of human trafficking Human trafficking can be internal or international and is composed of three elements: recruitment, transport, and transfer of persons; means of trafficking such as threats, abduction, and fraud; and purposes including cheap labor, sexual exploitation, and slavery. This illegal activity generates billions of dollars in profit and affects millions of people worldwide, including women and children ( Rahman, 2011 ). Even though human trafficking is an illegal activity that is highly condemned by various international organizations, such as the Global Alliance against Trafficking in Women, the Global Initiative to Fight Human Trafficking, UNICEF, and the ILO, it continues to expand at an alarming rate. various “pull” and “push” factors might have contributed to it. Push factors include family problems, armed conflicts, political instability, dictatorial governments, poverty, and lack of employment. On the other hand, pull factors including the demand for better opportunities, improvement in quality of life, and a desire for change. Consequently, global labor regulation to decrease trafficking flows and related issues continues to be a topic of extensive discussion among scholars, and political and economic actors ( Gezie et al., 2021 ). Human trafficking has significant socio-political and economic implications as it involves the exploitation of vulnerable individuals for profit ( Duong, K. A., 2012 ). This exploitation impedes economic growth and can lead to a loss of agency for the victims ( Wheaton et al., 2010 ). The phenomenon is complex, with various factors such as poverty, globalization, and cultural expectations contributing to its prevalence ( Cameron, et al., 2023 ). 2.1.2 Is Human trafficking an organized crime? Human trafficking, as defined by the United Nations, involves the recruitment, transportation, transfer, harboring, or receipt of people through force, fraud, or deception for the purpose of exploitation. This practice, which has existed for centuries, remains a significant modern-day problem. It affects men, women, boys, and girls who are forced into labor, sex, marriage, and organ donation against their will ( Bigio, J., & Vogelstein, R. B., 2021 ). Thus, human trafficking is regarded as one of the most lucrative criminal activities in the world. The terms trafficking in persons, human trafficking, and modern slavery function as umbrella terms frequently utilized interchangeably to depict a crime wherein traffickers exploit and derive profit from both adults and children by coercing them to undertake labor or participate in commercial sexual activities ( U.S. Department of State, 2022 ). If an individual under 18 is engaged in a commercial sex act, it is considered a crime, irrespective of the presence of force, fraud, or coercion. The United States identifies two main types of human trafficking: sex trafficking and forced labor. ( Bigio, J., & Vogelstein, R. B., 2021 ). Forced labor, which can also be known as labor trafficking, includes a variety of actions where one person utilizes force, deception, or coercion to exploit another person’s labor or services. When someone commits any of the outlined “acts” involving a child (under 18 years old), the means of such acts is irrelevant, regardless of whether there is evidence of force, fraud, or coercion. The law in the United States and many other nations forbids the exploitation of children in commercial sex activities. The United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime (UNCTOC) characterizes organized crime as a collaboration of three or more persons operating over time to commit serious crimes defined by the Convention, with the intent of obtaining financial or material gains, either directly or indirectly. In a similar vein, the European Union describes organized crime as a structured group comprising more than two individuals who work together over time to perpetrate offenses punishable by a minimum of four years of imprisonment or more severe penalties, regardless of whether these actions are primary crimes or methods to secure material benefits, and if relevant, to improperly influence public authorities. Human trafficking involves high-profile individuals who have the power to inflict significant harm on the economy and society. Despite stringent laws and severe penalties criminalizing human trafficking, these individuals continue to exploit transnational networks for profit. For example, in Eastern Europe, traffickers exploit the region’s economic situation by misleading unemployed graduates into forced prostitution. Russia and Ukraine serve as transit locations for traffickers to transport their victims. Israel has been reported to use Russia as a transit location to prevent individuals from being trafficked from Egypt ( Mossbarger, 2009 ). Prosecuting human traffickers in Russia and Ukraine is challenging, despite existing laws that prohibit human trafficking. The highly structured activities of criminal organizations persist over time, causing extensive economic, societal, psychological, and physical damage ( Mossbarger, 2009 ). According to Hughes (2001) , human trafficking is more profitable and involves less risk than trading in arms or drugs, generating an estimated $7 billion annually. 2.1.3 Human trafficking and political instability Political instability is a major driving force behind human trafficking. Armed conflicts, wars, ethnic clashes, and weak or dictatorial governments are the primary factors contributing to both internal and international human trafficking. However, the relationship between political instability and human trafficking is not solely unidirectional. Political instability in a country destabilizes every sector of the economy, forcing citizens to seek a better life elsewhere. This places them in a disadvantageous position, making them vulnerable to human trafficking. In some areas, political instability leads parents to expose their children to human trafficking by entrusting them to friends or relatives and, in some cases, even selling them, hoping they will have better lives in politically stable countries. The European Union Strategy towards the Eradication of Trafficking in Human Beings (2012–2016) recognizes political instability as one of the causes of human trafficking. In Africa, due to political instability, people often pass through Libya to reach Europe, where armed groups exploit vulnerable Africans fleeing their countries. These migrants often become victims of prostitution, torture, extortion, forced combat, and organ trafficking (Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, 2018). Article 9 of the Palermo Protocol emphasizes that to address human trafficking effectively, countries must identify and tackle the root causes that make people vulnerable to trafficking, incorporating economic, social, and political issues into their policy frameworks. Although many factors contribute to human trafficking, one of the primary root causes is political instability. Political instability places immense pressure on vulnerable populations, making them susceptible to human traffickers. The contribution of political instability to economic downturns and human rights crises is well documented. For instance, Ong’ayo (2008) noted that political instability creates both human crises and economic debacles. The life-threatening political and economic conditions in Africa contribute significantly to internal displacement and human trafficking, often attributed to leadership problems. Additionally, Weatherburn et al. (2015) analyzed the socio-economic, political, and criminal factors affecting human trafficking through eight scenarios and concluded that internal or transnational displacement caused by political instability or armed conflict is a major political factor increasing vulnerability to human trafficking. Lastly, studies by Koser (2000) and Heller et al. (2016) examined the effects of asylum policies and economic freedom on human trafficking, respectively. Koser (2000) drew three conclusions. First, increasing numbers of asylum seekers are being forced to turn to traffickers to navigate restrictive asylum policies. Second, trafficking exposes asylum seekers, including some genuine refugees, to new forms of vulnerability. Third, the growing vulnerability is more attributable to asylum policies than to traffickers or asylum seekers themselves. Heller et al. (2016) found no association between economic freedom and human trafficking, suggesting that economically free countries are more effective in combating human trafficking activities. 2.1.4 ILO and statistical reports on human trafficking Many migrant workers experience abuse, such as low wages, unsafe conditions, lack of social protection, and restrictions on their rights, including discrimination and xenophobia ( Arowolo, 2021 ). The International Labor Organization (ILO), established in 1919, aims to promote social justice and improve working conditions ( Kott, 2019 ). As the UN agency focused on labor rights, the ILO addresses human trafficking and smuggling issues ( Kott, 2019 ). According to the 2019 report on global trends in forced displacement, the number of people vulnerable to trafficking has increased in recent years. This rise is primarily attributed to the unprecedented increase in irregular migration and the number of displaced persons. These displacements are often caused by armed conflicts, ethnically based clashes, or terrorist organizations controlling territory in conflict zones. The UNODC (2009) report characterizes human trafficking as involving a range of activities including the sex trade, forced labor, organ trafficking, coerced child begging, early forced marriages, and participation in armed conflict. Currently, the human trafficking industry continues to flourish because of political unrest in many nations. As of the end of September 2023, around 114 million people globally were forcibly displaced as a result of persecution, conflict, violence, human rights abuses, or situations that significantly disrupted public order ( UNHCR, 2023 ). The International Labor Organization (ILO) report reveals that approximately 2.4 million individuals around the globe are subjected to forced labor. Furthermore, the U.S. Department of State’s 2022 report states that human trafficking—which includes both sex trafficking and forced labor—yields over $150 billion in illegal profits for traffickers and their associates. The majority of victims in this organized crime sector originate from the Asia-Pacific region, totaling 11.7 million, while the fewest are from developed economies and the EU, which record 1.5 million victims. Notably, profit distribution within this crime sector is substantial: the Asia-Pacific region generates a market value of $51.8 billion, while developed economies and the EU together account for $46.9 billion. The remaining segments of the organized crime market are distributed across Latin America and the Caribbean, Africa, the Middle East, Central and South-Eastern Europe, and the CIS regions ( Figure 1 ). Figure 1. Regional statistics on human trafficking. UNODC (2021) . Note: The figure is adopted from UNODC (2021) , Global Report on Trafficking in Persons. The International Labor Organization (ILO) report on forced labor, modern slavery, and human trafficking revealed that approximately 2.4 million individuals are coerced into labor globally. Utilizing data from the ILO, along with certain manipulations, the U.S. Department of State report (2022) estimates that human trafficking—including both sex trafficking and forced labor—yields over $150 billion in illegal profits for traffickers and those who assist them. Most victims of this organized crime are from the Asia-Pacific region, which accounts for 11.7 million victims. In contrast, developed economies and the EU report only 1.5 million victims. Nonetheless, the Asia-Pacific region generates substantial profits, with a market value of US$51.8 billion, while developed economies and the EU account for US$46.9 billion. The remaining organized crime market share is filled by four other regions: Latin America and the Caribbean, Africa, the Middle East, Central and South-Eastern Europe, and CIS ( Figure 2 ) Figure 2. Statistics on number of human trafficking and profit. Source: Integrity, G. F. (2017) . Note: The figure is adopted from Integrity, G. F. (2017), Illicit financial flows to and from developing countries: 2005-2014. Washington, DC. . Moreover, according to the US Department of State (2016) , the civil unrest in Syria has made so many men, women, and children victims of sex trafficking, forced labor, and early marriages in countries like Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Turkey. The International Justice Mission (2010) reported a rapid increase in sex trafficking, fueled by factors such as manipulation by family members and coerced prostitution. Furthermore, the UN report (2022) outlined the all-encompassing impact of human trafficking on victims’ lives. Every phase of trafficking can involve various forms of abuse: physical, sexual, and psychological violence, alongside deprivation, torture, forced drug use, economic exploitation, and poor working and living conditions. Additionally, statistics related to trafficked individuals and the income generated by traffickers fluctuate among different organizations. But an enormous number of people are crossing boundaries and facing different exploitation tactics. For example, the International Organization for Migration estimates that approximately 600,000–2 million people are trafficked and seven billion dollars in income are generated per year. While the US state department estimates showed that 600,000–800,000 persons are trafficked, and from it, around 80% are women and children. The US state department’s trafficking in-person report ( 2011 ) also reveals that 70% are for the purpose of prostitution and other sexual exploitation. Finally, Tyldum et al. (2005) explain why statistics on human trafficking victims differ across institutions, arguing that migration and exploitation are not mutually exclusive events. They highlight that some individuals may experience both migration and exploitation simultaneously, which complicates the task of counting victims. Additionally, the varying estimates of human trafficking victims reflect the different methods and criteria used by institutions to define and measure these overlapping experiences. 2.2 Empirical literature review The study by Zhang and Pineda (2008) investigates how official corruption impacts the conversation surrounding human trafficking, proposing that corruption could be a more significant predictor of trafficking activities than other macro-level factors. This assertion goes against the prevalent view that human trafficking primarily stems from poverty and limited economic opportunities. Although financial incentives are undeniably a driving force that leads to the trafficking of women and children, the socio-cultural factors allowing the initial deception and ongoing enslavement of victims may be more closely related to government incompetence or corruption. To support the corruption hypothesis, the authors conducted field observations in the red-light district of Tijuana, Mexico. These observations, which are discussed elsewhere, strongly indicate that official corruption might actually sustain and promote the trafficking industry. In a study conducted by Cho (2012) , the push and pull factors of human trafficking were analyzed using a robust regression approach. He assessed the resilience of 63 pull and 70 push factors identified in previous literature. Through extreme bound analysis, he performed over two million regressions involving up to 153 countries from 1995 to 2010, exploring all potential variable combinations. The findings clearly indicated that crime significantly influences human trafficking rates in both origin and destination countries. Interestingly, the results challenge common perceptions, suggesting that low levels of gender equality might restrict the outflow of human trafficking victims. The research also indicates that the relationship between general migration and human trafficking is somewhat ambiguous; however, a specific type of globalization that enhances exposure to foreign contacts and information influences human trafficking. Furthermore, the quality of institutions in origin countries is more impactful than in destination countries. Jiang and LaFree (2017) created a social disorganization approach to help understand human trafficking. They suggest that trade openness might be an important factor in this issue. Countries that are moving from high to low trade openness may have a harder time fighting human trafficking. This means trafficking could be more common in these countries. Their study used data from the United Nations, which included information from 43 countries over 163 time points between 2003 and 2008. This data provided complete details on all relevant factors. The researchers first used a method called semi-parametric fixed effects regression to examine the relationship between trade openness and human trafficking. Next, they applied random and fixed effects regression, along with negative binomial analysis, to investigate an inverted U-shaped relationship. Their findings confirmed this inverted U-shaped relationship, estimating the turning point at 1.995. They also performed two sensitivity analyses, using parametric and nonparametric bootstrap methods, which validated their results. Using negative binomial and fixed effects negative binomial regressions, they further confirmed the inverted U-shaped relationship between trade openness and human trafficking counts. At last, human trafficking is significantly influenced by governance indicators, such as voice and accountability, which reflect the extent to which citizens can participate in political processes and hold their governments accountable ( Das et al., 2013 ; Movsisyan, S., 2018 ). High levels of accountability can lead to better enforcement of laws against trafficking and greater protection for vulnerable populations. Additionally, demographic variables like population growth rate can exacerbate vulnerabilities, as rapid growth may strain resources and increase competition for jobs, making individuals more susceptible to exploitation ( Onuoha, B., 2011 ). Macroeconomic variables such as inflation and unemployment rate further complicate this issue; high inflation can diminish purchasing power and economic stability, while elevated unemployment rates can lead individuals to seek precarious employment opportunities, increasing their risk of falling into trafficking situations ( Njoku, 2015 ; Tallmadge and Gitter, 2018 ). Methods 3. Analytical framework 3.1 Variables and data source This research examines the influence of political instability on human trafficking. Data from the World Bank, United Nations on drug and crime (UNODC), international labor organization (ILO), were utilized to construct a panel dataset covering 20 countries from 2013 to 2018. The data set is used to estimate human trafficking model, and both human trafficking origin and destination countries are considered. For these models the following variables are selected bearing in mind the theory and empirics on this subject. Variables and respective measures are as follows: ( Table 1 ) Table 1. List of variables, measurement and source of data. Mnemonic Description of variables Sources Psva 🖎 Political instability proxies: Voice and accountability, rated on a scale from -2.5 (weak) to 2.5 (strong). Voice and accountability gauge citizens' participation in selecting their government and freedom of expression. WB- governance indicator ht 🖎 Number of human trafficking victims: total number of detected trafficking victims by citizenship. UNODC Inf 🖎 Inflation rate: Consumer Price Indices (CPI) that measures the weighted average of the prices of a basket of consumer goods and services purchased by a consumer, considered a proxy for macroeconomic stability. IFS- International financial statistics Pop 🖎 Total population and population growth rate: Total population in thousands and its growth rate as a percentage of the total population. WB, development indicator Unempt 🖎 The unemployment rate is the percentage of the total labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking job. WB, development indicator Table 2. Victim’s and perpetrator’s characteristics. Victim’s characteristics Perpetrator’s characteristics Gender Count % of total Count % of total Woman 9.600 55% 12.300 78% Man 8.000 45% 6.000 38% Age Status and Exploit Type Adult 16.400 93% Children 1.200 7% Exploitation type Forced Labor 12.200 58% Sexual Exploit 2.800 13% 3.2 The econometric model The study utilized panel data because it is superior to pure time series or cross-sectional data in handling complex issues. Panel data models address unobserved variability, capture temporal dynamics, increase efficiency, manage endogeneity, and analyze individual-specific impacts. Dynamic panel data models, specifically system GMM established by Arellano and Bover (1995) and Blundell and Bond (1998) , outperform static and classic dynamic panel data models. These benefits derive from system GMM’s capacity to use both differences and levels of variables simultaneously, which improves efficiency and lowers bias in parameter estimates. According to Roodman (2009) , system GMM effectively addresses difficulties of autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity within panels, making it a viable option for empirical study. Furthermore, it enables for the incorporation of more instruments, increasing the precision of estimations as compared to difference GMM, which only uses lagged differences as instruments. This is especially useful in small sample settings, when the chance of poor instruments is high. The main econometric model of the study, therefore, is the System GMM, but for triangulating the results, a dynamic fixed-effects model is also estimated. (1) ht it = α ht it − 1 + β x it + η i + ε it Where ht it is the number of human trafficking victims, ht it − 1 is lag of human trafficking victims, and x it is a vector of explanatory variables. The vector of explanatory variables incudes: political instability, proxy voice and accountability, total population, population growth rate, inflation, and unemployment rate. Based on theoretical and empirical foundations, the study employs a dynamic panel data econometric model. The general model incorporates all variables of interest and is outlined as follows: (2) ht it = β 0 + β 1 ht it − 1 + β 2 Inf it + β 3 Unempt it + β 4 Pop it + β 5 Psva it + η i + ε it Where; ht it Is number of human trafficking victims. ht it − 1 is one year lag number of human trafficking victims, Inf it is inflation rate, Unempt it is unemployment rate, Pop it is population growth rate, and Psva it is political instability proxies (voice and accountability). Whereas η i denotes unobserved time invariant heterogeneity, β ′ s are slope parameters, and ε it is idiosyncratic error term. 4. Empirical results This section presents the estimation results of Equation (1) of the human trafficking model. Results of the model are presented and discussed below. The post estimation specification tests are carried out and pass the diagnostics tests. The AR (1) is significant, the AR (2) is insignificant and the Sargan test is insignificant in the model. This implies the model is consistent with GMM theory and the over identification restrictions are invalid in the model. In addition to the system GMM results of column (2) of Table 3 , shows estimation results of the fixed effect model (with in estimator) and it confirms that the results are nearly similar, both in magnitude and with respect to statistical significance, to the system GMM results. Table 3. Human trafficking model estimation results. Dependent variable: Human trafficking victims Variables Fixed effect System GMM ht L.1 0.9312492*** (0.1389445) 0.8376727 *** (0.0839566) Inf -0.3511833** (0.1423463) -1.834523 ** (0.8218286) Unempt -2.58141 (2.820621) 20.99182* (10.96818) Pop -60.8518 (61.32297) 303.6073* (159.3352) Psva -245.9581** (91.07333) -188.3054** (75.01457) Cons 679.9014 (609.099) -3074.627* (1580.598) AR (1) = 0.000 AR (2) = 0.111 Sargan p value = 0.835 4.1 Desk review report The table below provides information on the attributes of both the perpetrators and the victims in cases of human trafficking, with a particular emphasis on gender, age, and the nature of the exploitation. The gender distribution of the victims reveals that 45% of them are men, or 8,000 people, and 55% of them are women or 9,600 people. This suggests that while women are marginally more likely to become victims, men also make up a sizable percentage of those who fall victim to human trafficking. On the other hand, the gender distribution of those who commit these crimes shows that women make up a substantial majority (78%, or 12,300 people), as opposed to men (38%, or 6,000 people). This implies that women are involved in some specific trafficking networks or operations, which may account for their significant contribution to the practice of human trafficking. The findings align with the 2016 EDHS report, which indicates that sexual violence is frequently perpetrated by individuals with whom women share an intimate connection. Of ever-married women aged 15-49 who have experienced sexual violence, 69% identified their current husband or partner as the perpetrator, while 30% mentioned former husbands or partners. Nevertheless, a notable percentage of all women who faced sexual violence also cited current or former boyfriends and other relatives (2% for each) as offenders. Moreover, the age distribution of victims shows that adults make up 93% (16,400) of the total, while children make up only 7% (1,200). This discrepancy indicates that adult victims are the main target of trafficking operations, most likely because adult victims are more able to engage in labor or other exploitative activities. In terms of the kind of exploitation, forced labor is the most common, accounting for 58% of victims (12,200 people), and sexual exploitation comes in second at 13% (2,800 people). This suggests that, while sexual exploitation is still a major problem, labor exploitation is the main cause of human trafficking. The information shows that focused interventions are required to address the high frequency of forced labor and the substantial role that women play in both the perpetration and victimization of this crime. Finally, regional analysis of citizenship reveals that most victims originated from Asia (28.96%), Europe (27.78%), and Africa (24.92%), with minimal representation from the Americas and Oceania (1.31%). Similarly, the regions of exploitation align closely with these findings, with Asia (29.63%), Europe (30.35%), and Africa (20.15%) being the primary areas where trafficking occurs. The Americas and Oceania continue to represent a small portion of the data, contributing just 1% of the total ( CTDC, 2024 ). Therefore, policies should provide customized support for each group, taking into account the unique vulnerabilities of adult and child victims. Additionally, a better understanding of the roles played by female perpetrates may result in preventative and law enforcement tactics that are more successful. All things considered, these observations demonstrate the complex dynamics of human trafficking and the need for addressing the cross-border aspect of human trafficking, strong international collaboration, and interdisciplinary strategies to address this problem and assist its victims. 4.1.1 Freedom of association and human trafficking The Freedom of Association Index measures the extent to which parties and civil society organizations can form and operate freely, with values ranging from 0 to 1, where 1 indicates the highest level of freedom. When examining this index from 2003 to 2023, we observe distinct patterns across different countries, which can be correlated with income levels and trafficking in person ( Figure 3 ) Figure 3. Freedom of Association Index and human trafficking victims. Source: V-Dem (2024). Note: The figure is produced using openly available data from V-Dem (2024). . Countries like Egypt, Venezuela, the UAE, Belarus, and Uzbekistan typically have lower Freedom of Association Index scores. These countries frequently have restrictive political environments, marked by authoritarian regimes or significant restrictions on civil liberties. For example, Egypt and Belarus have strict controls on political opposition and civil society activities. Venezuela’s political instability and economic crisis have resulted in severe restrictions on freedoms. The UAE, despite its wealth, maintains strict controls over political expression and association. Uzbekistan, historically under authoritarian rule, has only recently begun modest reforms. These low scores reflect the pervasive constraints on forming and operating civil society organizations and political parties, which are essential for political pluralism and democratic governance. Simultaneously, the number of human trafficking victims detected by Egypt has been increasing since 2017, with similar trends observed in Uzbekistan and Belarus. This rise in human trafficking incidents reflects broader issues related to weak governance and limited civil liberties. In contrast, countries such as the United States, Australia, and Argentina consistently rank higher on the index. These countries uphold strong democratic values and civil liberties, creating an environment in which civil society and political parties can function with few restrictions. The United States and Australia, as high-income democracies, provide strong protections for freedom of association, contributing to political stability and a vibrant civic life. Argentina, despite economic challenges, maintains democratic institutions and civil liberties that allow for high levels of political engagement and association. The higher index points in these countries reflect supportive environments for association, crucial for sustaining democratic processes and political stability. The higher number of human trafficking victims detected by U.S. authorities is due to a robust legal framework, extensive resources, strong partnerships, and advanced technology. Public awareness campaigns and a victim-centered approach also enhance detection efforts, contributing to higher identification rates. Nigeria, Mexico, and Togo are among the index’s middle-ranked countries. These countries frequently experience changing political conditions, with periods of both democratic and authoritarian rule. Political instability and regional conflicts in Nigeria can undermine civil liberties, but there are also periods of democratic engagement. Mexico, with its ongoing battles against corruption and organized crime, has a mixed record on freedoms, reflecting the conflict between democratic aspirations and security concerns. Togo has seen some political reforms, but longstanding authoritarian practices still limit full freedom of association. These mid-range scores suggest a moderate level of freedom of association, indicating some governmental interference but also opportunities for civic engagement and the possibility of higher trafficking in person trends. 4.2 Human trafficking model In this model, we hypothesize that countries with free media, freedom of association, and freedom of expression tend to be politically stable. Consequently, politically stable countries are anticipated to experience fewer trafficking victims compared to unstable countries. Table 3 presents the estimates derived from the human trafficking model. The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimates reveal that inflation, unemployment, total population, and a proxy for political instability (voice and accountability) are all significant factors influencing human trafficking dynamics. Specifically, the findings confirm that freedom of expression, freedom of association, and a free media, as well as overall governmental accountability, contribute to reducing the prevalence of trafficking victims. The media serves as a crucial tool in combating human trafficking by raising awareness and educating the public about the issue. Investigative journalism can expose trafficking networks, thereby contributing to governmental accountability and public vigilance. In addition governance, characterized by transparency and accountability, is essential in addressing the root causes of trafficking. When governments are held accountable for their actions, they are more likely to implement policies that protect human rights and reduce vulnerabilities associated with trafficking. This includes creating legal frameworks that support victims and prevent exploitation through comprehensive anti-trafficking strategies. The results are consistent with the findings of Ditmore and Thukral (2012) , Das et al., (2013) , and Movsisyan, S. (2018) . Finally, higher unemployment rates and larger populations are associated with higher incidences of human trafficking victims. Furthermore, the estimation results suggest an inverse relationship between inflation and the number of human trafficking victims, implying that higher inflation rates may mitigate trafficking occurrences. Results of the control variables are also consistent with Onuoha, B. (2011) , Njoku, A. O. (2015) , and Tallmadge and Gitter (2018) . 5. Conclusion and recommendation Since 2000, over 1,000 articles and books have been published on human trafficking. However, most of this research is non-empirical, largely due to a lack of comprehensive data. Research typically examines economic, political, and demographic factors influencing trafficking. Economic analyses range from traffickers’ cost-benefit calculations to macroeconomic issues like poverty and globalization. Political factors include armed conflict, the presence of peacekeepers, and the strength of domestic political institutions. Despite the substantial body of literature, there is a pressing need for more evidence-based research to inform policies and address the human rights implications of trafficking. This paper, therefore, analyzes the effect of political instability on human trafficking, using a panel data set for 20 countries and estimating the model through system GMM and dynamic fixed effect techniques. Results from the human trafficking model indicate that absence of freedom of expression, free media, and freedom of association provokes the number of human trafficking victims, and an increase in the total population and the unemployment rate will simultaneously increase the number of human trafficking victims. Additionally, the paper revealed that the higher the inflation rate directly increases the cost of living and then the saving of youths will decrease and simultaneously families are unable to cover the costs of trafficking. For that matter, results show that payments for middleman and traffickers are huge and accordingly trafficking activities becomes one the profitable illegal business. While there are some who are displaced without having anything forcefully to alive. Based on our results from independent estimation techniques, we suggest that governments need to hear the voice of the people and allow freedom of expression and association to mitigate human trafficking. Similarly, decreasing the unemployment rate and applying population controlling mechanisms are necessary to drop the number of human trafficking victims. Lastly, this paper has the following limitations. The analysis is based on micro panel data due to the unavailability of raw data. Moreover, numbers of human trafficking victims are underestimated due to the nature of the crime. We, therefore, recommend future studies to consider these issues. Based on the findings, the following recommendations are made: I. Respect, Protect, and Fulfill Human Rights: Promote freedom of expression, media, and association to create an environment that abandon human trafficking and supports sustainable economic growth. A human rights-based approach focuses on protecting vulnerable individuals by upholding freedoms like expression and association. This helps create environments less conducive to human trafficking, while education and community support reduce associated risks. II. Promote Economic Stability and Job Creation: Addressing economic instability is essential for lowering susceptibility to human trafficking. Governments ought to enact policies with the objective of generating employment prospects and control price hikes. Implementing effective economic strategies to control inflation can help create a stable economic environment that is less favorable for trafficking. By ensuring economic stability, persons are provided with genuine opportunities for employment, therefore reducing the chances of becoming victims of human traffickers III. Enhance International Cooperation and Support for Victims: To effectively address the cross-border aspect of human trafficking, strong international collaboration is necessary. It is imperative for nations to collaborate in order to exchange intelligence, synchronize legal structures, and carry out collaborative actions against trafficking networks. Ethics and consent Ethical approval and consent were not required. Data availability statement The data supporting the findings of this study are freely available from several reputable sources. Specifically, the data for each country under study (check the appendix for list of countries) can be accessed from the following databases: 🖎 International Financial Statistics (IFS) : Provided by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), this database includes comprehensive economic and financial data. It is publicly available https://www.imf.org/data/imf-finances under the copy right © 2025 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 🖎 World Development Indicators (WDI) : Published by the World Bank, this database provides key development data, including economic, social, and environmental indicators. Data is publicly available at https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators under © 2025 The World Bank Group, All Rights Reserved . DOI: 10.5066/F9BC27YF 🖎 World Governance Indicators (WGI) : Also published by the World Bank, this database offers governance indicators for various countries, including metrics on political stability, government effectiveness, and regulatory quality. Data is publicly available at https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/worldwide-governance-indicators . DOI: 10.1596/INFOWORLDWIDEGOVERNANCEINDICATORS2022 🖎 United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) : This database provides data on crime, criminal justice, drug trafficking, and other related topics globally. Data can be accessed from https://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/data-and-analysis/crime-and-criminal-justice.html . 🖎 Human Trafficking in Persons for Citizenship : This data source provides information related to human trafficking, particularly concerning citizenship and migration issues. Data can be accessed from https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-and-studies/immigration-and-citizenship-data and no doi. Detailed information regarding the variables, measurement methods, and sources of data is documented in Table One (from pages 13-14) of this manuscript, titled “The Nexus between Political Instability and Human Trafficking: An Urgent Call for Action.” These data are publicly accessible and can be obtained directly from the respective databases without any restrictions or fees. Researchers can refer to the provided sources to access the same data used in this study. References Adesina OS: Modern day slavery: poverty and child trafficking in Nigeria. Afr. Ident. 2014; 12 (2): 165–179. Akee RK, Basu AK, Chau NH, et al. : Chapter 28 ethnic fragmentation, conflict, displaced persons and human trafficking: An empirical analysis. Front. Econ. Globaliz. 2010; 691–716. Arellano M, Bover O: Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. J. Econom. 1995; 68 (1):29–51. 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Comments on this article Comments (0) Version 1 VERSION 1 PUBLISHED 08 Aug 2025 ADD YOUR COMMENT Comment Author details Author details 1 Economics, Woldia University, Weldiya, Amhara, 400, Ethiopia 2 Economics, Istanbul Universitesi, Fatih, Istanbul, Turkey 3 Economics, Woldia University, Weldiya, Amhara, 400, Ethiopia 4 College of Finance, Management and Development, Ethiopian Civil Service University, Addis Ababa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 5 Business Management, Dire Dawa University, Dire Dawa, Dire Dawa, Ethiopia Abebe Aragaw Roles: Methodology, Writing – Original Draft Preparation Kamal Tasiu Abdullahi Roles: Investigation, Validation, Writing – Review & Editing Henok Ezezew Roles: Conceptualization, Supervision, Writing – Review & Editing Wondwesen Getaneh Roles: Validation, Writing – Review & Editing Tarekegn Tamiru Roles: Supervision, Writing – Review & Editing Competing interests No competing interests were disclosed. Grant information The author(s) declared that no grants were involved in supporting this work. Article Versions (1) version 1 Published: 08 Aug 2025, 14:777 https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.154814.1 Copyright © 2025 Aragaw A et al . This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Download Export To Sciwheel Bibtex EndNote ProCite Ref. Manager (RIS) Sente metrics Views Downloads F1000Research - - PubMed Central info_outline Data from PMC are received and updated monthly. - - Citations open_in_new 0 open_in_new 0 open_in_new SEE MORE DETAILS CITE how to cite this article Aragaw A, Abdullahi KT, Ezezew H et al. The Nexus between Political Instability and Human Trafficking: An Urgent Call for Action [version 1; peer review: 1 approved with reservations] . F1000Research 2025, 14 :777 ( https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.154814.1 ) NOTE: If applicable, it is important to ensure the information in square brackets after the title is included in all citations of this article. COPY CITATION DETAILS track receive updates on this article Track an article to receive email alerts on any updates to this article. TRACK THIS ARTICLE Share Open Peer Review Current Reviewer Status: ? Key to Reviewer Statuses VIEW HIDE Approved The paper is scientifically sound in its current form and only minor, if any, improvements are suggested Approved with reservations A number of small changes, sometimes more significant revisions are required to address specific details and improve the papers academic merit. Not approved Fundamental flaws in the paper seriously undermine the findings and conclusions Version 1 VERSION 1 PUBLISHED 08 Aug 2025 Views 0 Cite How to cite this report: Cerny S. Reviewer Report For: The Nexus between Political Instability and Human Trafficking: An Urgent Call for Action [version 1; peer review: 1 approved with reservations] . F1000Research 2025, 14 :777 ( https://doi.org/10.5256/f1000research.169888.r406162 ) The direct URL for this report is: https://f1000research.com/articles/14-777/v1#referee-response-406162 NOTE: it is important to ensure the information in square brackets after the title is included in this citation. Close Copy Citation Details Reviewer Report 11 Sep 2025 Shana Cerny , University of South Dakota, Vermillion, South Dakota, USA Approved with Reservations VIEWS 0 https://doi.org/10.5256/f1000research.169888.r406162 This paper outlines the influence of political instability and human trafficking risk. Introduction: After review, I felt that the introduction should have started with section 2.1.3. Prior to this section, there were multiple instances of poor writing mechanics, including ... Continue reading READ ALL This paper outlines the influence of political instability and human trafficking risk. Introduction: After review, I felt that the introduction should have started with section 2.1.3. Prior to this section, there were multiple instances of poor writing mechanics, including awkward word flow, ineffective transitions, and outdated literature. Word choice in places is also incorrect. All introduction sections should be condensed and clarified, or removed with section 2.1.3 being the start of the introduction. Methods: I do not have expertise in the statistics used in this study and recommend a qualified statistician review this section. Results: I do not have expertise in the statistics used in this study and recommend a qualified statistician review this section for validity. Conclusion and Recommendations: The recommendations are clear and understandable. Again though, there are multiple writing mechanic issues. Is the work clearly and accurately presented and does it cite the current literature? Partly Is the study design appropriate and is the work technically sound? Yes Are sufficient details of methods and analysis provided to allow replication by others? Yes If applicable, is the statistical analysis and its interpretation appropriate? I cannot comment. A qualified statistician is required. Are all the source data underlying the results available to ensure full reproducibility? Yes Are the conclusions drawn adequately supported by the results? Yes Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed. Reviewer Expertise: My area of research is related to supporting recovery for individuals who have experienced sex trafficking. I am not an expert in the statistics used in this study and recommend that a statistician review the methods and results. Also, there are multiple writing mechanics issues that distract from the intent of the paper. I think this topic is important and therefore approve with reservation, if the editor is able to confirm the statistical validity of the methods and results and the authors revise the full narrative to use correct writing mechanics expected of a professional publication. I confirm that I have read this submission and believe that I have an appropriate level of expertise to confirm that it is of an acceptable scientific standard, however I have significant reservations, as outlined above. Close READ LESS CITE CITE HOW TO CITE THIS REPORT Cerny S. Reviewer Report For: The Nexus between Political Instability and Human Trafficking: An Urgent Call for Action [version 1; peer review: 1 approved with reservations] . F1000Research 2025, 14 :777 ( https://doi.org/10.5256/f1000research.169888.r406162 ) The direct URL for this report is: https://f1000research.com/articles/14-777/v1#referee-response-406162 NOTE: it is important to ensure the information in square brackets after the title is included in all citations of this article. COPY CITATION DETAILS Report a concern Respond or Comment COMMENT ON THIS REPORT Comments on this article Comments (0) Version 1 VERSION 1 PUBLISHED 08 Aug 2025 ADD YOUR COMMENT Comment keyboard_arrow_left keyboard_arrow_right Open Peer Review Reviewer Status info_outline Alongside their report, reviewers assign a status to the article: Approved The paper is scientifically sound in its current form and only minor, if any, improvements are suggested Approved with reservations A number of small changes, sometimes more significant revisions are required to address specific details and improve the papers academic merit. Not approved Fundamental flaws in the paper seriously undermine the findings and conclusions Reviewer Reports Invited Reviewers 1 Version 1 08 Aug 25 read Shana Cerny , University of South Dakota, Vermillion, USA Comments on this article All Comments (0) Add a comment Sign up for content alerts Sign Up You are now signed up to receive this alert Browse by related subjects keyboard_arrow_left Back to all reports Reviewer Report 0 Views copyright © 2025 Cerny S. This is an open access peer review report distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. 11 Sep 2025 | for Version 1 Shana Cerny , University of South Dakota, Vermillion, South Dakota, USA 0 Views copyright © 2025 Cerny S. This is an open access peer review report distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. format_quote Cite this report speaker_notes Responses (0) Approved With Reservations info_outline Alongside their report, reviewers assign a status to the article: Approved The paper is scientifically sound in its current form and only minor, if any, improvements are suggested Approved with reservations A number of small changes, sometimes more significant revisions are required to address specific details and improve the papers academic merit. Not approved Fundamental flaws in the paper seriously undermine the findings and conclusions This paper outlines the influence of political instability and human trafficking risk. Introduction: After review, I felt that the introduction should have started with section 2.1.3. Prior to this section, there were multiple instances of poor writing mechanics, including awkward word flow, ineffective transitions, and outdated literature. Word choice in places is also incorrect. All introduction sections should be condensed and clarified, or removed with section 2.1.3 being the start of the introduction. Methods: I do not have expertise in the statistics used in this study and recommend a qualified statistician review this section. Results: I do not have expertise in the statistics used in this study and recommend a qualified statistician review this section for validity. Conclusion and Recommendations: The recommendations are clear and understandable. Again though, there are multiple writing mechanic issues. Is the work clearly and accurately presented and does it cite the current literature? Partly Is the study design appropriate and is the work technically sound? Yes Are sufficient details of methods and analysis provided to allow replication by others? Yes If applicable, is the statistical analysis and its interpretation appropriate? I cannot comment. A qualified statistician is required. Are all the source data underlying the results available to ensure full reproducibility? Yes Are the conclusions drawn adequately supported by the results? Yes Competing Interests No competing interests were disclosed. Reviewer Expertise My area of research is related to supporting recovery for individuals who have experienced sex trafficking. I am not an expert in the statistics used in this study and recommend that a statistician review the methods and results. Also, there are multiple writing mechanics issues that distract from the intent of the paper. I think this topic is important and therefore approve with reservation, if the editor is able to confirm the statistical validity of the methods and results and the authors revise the full narrative to use correct writing mechanics expected of a professional publication. I confirm that I have read this submission and believe that I have an appropriate level of expertise to confirm that it is of an acceptable scientific standard, however I have significant reservations, as outlined above. reply Respond to this report Responses (0) Cerny S. Peer Review Report For: The Nexus between Political Instability and Human Trafficking: An Urgent Call for Action [version 1; peer review: 1 approved with reservations] . F1000Research 2025, 14 :777 ( https://doi.org/10.5256/f1000research.169888.r406162) NOTE: it is important to ensure the information in square brackets after the title is included in this citation. The direct URL for this report is: https://f1000research.com/articles/14-777/v1#referee-response-406162 Alongside their report, reviewers assign a status to the article: Approved - the paper is scientifically sound in its current form and only minor, if any, improvements are suggested Approved with reservations - A number of small changes, sometimes more significant revisions are required to address specific details and improve the papers academic merit. Not approved - fundamental flaws in the paper seriously undermine the findings and conclusions Adjust parameters to alter display View on desktop for interactive features Includes Interactive Elements View on desktop for interactive features Competing Interests Policy Provide sufficient details of any financial or non-financial competing interests to enable users to assess whether your comments might lead a reasonable person to question your impartiality. 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