Joint infrastructure and biodiversity optimisation reveals favourable cost-protection trade-offs in a carefully planned renewable energy transition

Joint infrastructure and biodiversity optimisation reveals favourable cost-protection trade-offs in a carefully planned renewable energy transition | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Joint infrastructure and biodiversity optimisation reveals favourable cost-protection trade-offs in a carefully planned renewable energy transition Brendan Wintle, Andrew Rogers, Yimin Zhang, Andrew Pascal, Rachel Morgain, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7014207/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract A rapid transition to renewable energy is essential for climate change mitigation, yet poorly planned developments risk contributing to the biodiversity extinction crisis and losing social licence through impacts on sensitive species. We provide the first quantitative analysis that demonstrates how renewable energy can be strategically deployed to effectively erase biodiversity impacts while meeting energy needs cost-effectively. Focusing on Queensland, Australia - a global biodiversity hotspot experiencing rapid renewable energy expansion - we quantify how increasing levels of biodiversity protection only moderately increases costs of renewable energy infrastructure projects required to meet electricity demand in a net-zero emission energy system in 2050. By avoiding 30% of the most important areas for threatened species when developing renewable energy infrastructure, we avoid 90% of species’ distributions, with 77% of species distributions completely avoided. Avoiding infrastructure in these areas adds just 1-2% to electricity bills in 2050. Increasing protection to 50% of lands protects 96% of species distributions, adding just 2-4% to electricity bills in 2050. These cost increases are likely much smaller than the uncertainty of the planning task, rendering them effectively unobservable. We show how other Australian states also have high land use flexibility relative to energy demand, indicating the generality of our results in Australia and the global transferability of our method and analysis. Our approach reveals opportunities for biodiversity protection within energy transition planning and challenges the perception that global renewable energy and biodiversity protection targets are irreconcilable. Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Biodiversity Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Environmental economics Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementarymaterialsJointinfrastructureandbiodiversityoptimisation062025.pdf Supplementary figures, tables and data descriptions for - Joint infrastructure and biodiversity optimisation - Wintle Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7014207","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":482629235,"identity":"778d37c2-6bf4-4931-82ab-6dbe73185708","order_by":0,"name":"Brendan Wintle","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA+klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACAxDBA8T8QHyAgcEiASZIWItkA1iLBAlaDA6A+URoMZc+fOzBm5o7iZtv5B48dKNCIo+BvXmbBEPNYZxaLPvS0g3nHHuWuO1GXsLhnDMSxQw8x8okGI7h1mJwhsdMmoftcO62GzkGh3PbJBIbJHLMJBjY8Gnh/ybN8+9w7uYZIC3/gFrk3wC1/MNrC5s0b9vh3A0SIC0NIFt4zCQY2/D4pYfNTHJu3+H6GWfeGBzOOSZRzMaTVmyR2JeOU4s5D/MziTffDhvzt+cYf86pscnjZz+88caHb9Y4tWACNhCRQIKGUTAKRsEoGAWYAABts1VnCOe18wAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4234-5950","institution":"University of Melbourne","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Brendan","middleName":"","lastName":"Wintle","suffix":""},{"id":482629236,"identity":"b4c40352-a36f-40a8-a1be-7bef7853dabe","order_by":1,"name":"Andrew Rogers","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Melbourne","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Andrew","middleName":"","lastName":"Rogers","suffix":""},{"id":482629237,"identity":"85c32f16-1fbc-4ddf-a0b2-efbdac1e3019","order_by":2,"name":"Yimin Zhang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Melbourne","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yimin","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""},{"id":482629238,"identity":"d40b1df9-a291-43cb-8707-0215dffbafc9","order_by":3,"name":"Andrew Pascal","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Princeton University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Andrew","middleName":"","lastName":"Pascal","suffix":""},{"id":482629239,"identity":"6ab8ede9-0a68-4f3e-8f4c-ada1d749dc80","order_by":4,"name":"Rachel Morgain","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Melbourne","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Rachel","middleName":"","lastName":"Morgain","suffix":""},{"id":482629240,"identity":"4bbe12a2-6137-4432-a217-dafc9a275a41","order_by":5,"name":"James Watson","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4942-1984","institution":"University of Queensland","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"James","middleName":"","lastName":"Watson","suffix":""},{"id":482629241,"identity":"e4875649-62d8-459c-a880-c55cb5bf0f1c","order_by":6,"name":"Michelle Ward","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Griffith University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Michelle","middleName":"","lastName":"Ward","suffix":""},{"id":482629242,"identity":"15f54eba-ff95-4e27-88a4-f5259a4da867","order_by":7,"name":"Chris Greig","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Princeton University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chris","middleName":"","lastName":"Greig","suffix":""},{"id":482629243,"identity":"db4a0885-2386-4a60-8b98-a0d1d6cfe8d3","order_by":8,"name":"Michael Breir","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Melbourne","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Michael","middleName":"","lastName":"Breir","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-30 21:30:29","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7014207/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7014207/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":86375808,"identity":"c9471653-5600-448e-b32c-6ccf9edcb79f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-10 03:01:02","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":728746,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Updated MS","description":"","filename":"WintleJointinfrastructureandbiodiversityoptimisation4072025.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7014207/v1_covered_f154afaf-d025-4a8c-ac34-1b8ce10bdfe6.pdf"},{"id":86375107,"identity":"148c8c23-4291-4614-b4e0-30fba34f7835","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-10 02:53:00","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":941769,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary figures, tables and data descriptions for - Joint infrastructure and biodiversity optimisation - Wintle","description":"","filename":"SupplementarymaterialsJointinfrastructureandbiodiversityoptimisation062025.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7014207/v1/13f878b41a7c802b0e2edc09.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Joint infrastructure and biodiversity optimisation reveals favourable cost-protection trade-offs in a carefully planned renewable energy transition","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7014207/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7014207/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"A rapid transition to renewable energy is essential for climate change mitigation, yet poorly planned developments risk contributing to the biodiversity extinction crisis and losing social licence through impacts on sensitive species. We provide the first quantitative analysis that demonstrates how renewable energy can be strategically deployed to effectively erase biodiversity impacts while meeting energy needs cost-effectively. Focusing on Queensland, Australia - a global biodiversity hotspot experiencing rapid renewable energy expansion - we quantify how increasing levels of biodiversity protection only moderately increases costs of renewable energy infrastructure projects required to meet electricity demand in a net-zero emission energy system in 2050. By avoiding 30% of the most important areas for threatened species when developing renewable energy infrastructure, we avoid 90% of species’ distributions, with 77% of species distributions completely avoided. Avoiding infrastructure in these areas adds just 1-2% to electricity bills in 2050. Increasing protection to 50% of lands protects 96% of species distributions, adding just 2-4% to electricity bills in 2050. These cost increases are likely much smaller than the uncertainty of the planning task, rendering them effectively unobservable. We show how other Australian states also have high land use flexibility relative to energy demand, indicating the generality of our results in Australia and the global transferability of our method and analysis. Our approach reveals opportunities for biodiversity protection within energy transition planning and challenges the perception that global renewable energy and biodiversity protection targets are irreconcilable.","manuscriptTitle":"Joint infrastructure and biodiversity optimisation reveals favourable cost-protection trade-offs in a carefully planned renewable energy transition","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-07-10 02:52:56","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7014207/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-ecology-and-evolution","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"natecolevol","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Ecology \u0026 Evolution](http://www.nature.com/natecolevol/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Ecology \u0026 Evolution","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Research","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"8054ce06-a12a-44db-82f4-15b755c1203e","owner":[],"postedDate":"July 10th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":51243795,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Biodiversity"},{"id":51243796,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact"},{"id":51243797,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Environmental economics"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-09-22T00:30:26+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-07-10 02:52:56","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7014207","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7014207","identity":"rs-7014207","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}