Settlement and infrastructure patterns influence energy use and CO2 emissions almost as much as economic activity

Abstract Spatial patterns of settlements and transport infrastructures are known to influence per-capita energy use and CO2 emissions at the urban level1–4. At the national level, other potential determinants of energy use and CO2 emissions, primarily GDP, received much attention5–7, whereas the role of settlements and infrastructure patterns was disregarded due to lacking data. We present a set of novel national-level indicators derived from global satellite- and crowd-sourced maps to characterize extent and spatial patterns of settlements and infrastructures. We quantify these indicators for 113 countries and statistically analyze the results along with final energy use and territorial CO2 emissions, as well as factors usually considered in IPAT (impact = population x affluence x technology) approaches. We find that our indicators have similar explanatory power for energy use and CO2 emissions as GDP and IPAT factors. Covariates include built-up area, urban population density, the spatial clustering of built-up land, as well as transport networks, in addition to the effect of GDP. We conclude that the extent and spatial layout of settlements and infrastructures strongly affects resource use and emissions. Resource-sparing settlements and transport networks are under-appreciated options for reducing energy use and CO2 emissions.