Consequential Differences in Satellite-Era Sea Surface Temperature Trends Across Datasets

Consequential Differences in Satellite-Era Sea Surface Temperature Trends Across Datasets | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Analysis Consequential Differences in Satellite-Era Sea Surface Temperature Trends Across Datasets Sofia Menemenlis, Gabriel Vecchi, Wenchang Yang, Stephan Fueglistaler, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5493841/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 11 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Climate Change → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Global surface temperatures since the 1980s, when near-global satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) measurements became available, are presumed to be well-known. Satellite-era warming trends in four commonly used global (land+ocean) temperature reconstructions agree closely. However, trends in four commonly used SST datasets show first-order differences, with 1982-2022 60°S to 60°N trends ranging from 0.09-0.17 °C per decade. These large discrepancies are perplexing given the agreement between global temperature datasets and the fact that 70% of Earth’s surface is covered by ocean, but are legible upon recognizing that global temperature datasets use SST fields whose trends agree more closely than those of the above four SST datasets. Considering the trend uncertainty across SST datasets widens the range of plausible global temperature trends and impacts interpretations of recent record global temperatures. We discuss some of these findings’ wide implications for understanding the character and impacts of global warming. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change Scientific community and society/Scientific community/Research data Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SSTanalysissupplement.pdf Supplementary Material for “Consequential Differences in Satellite-Era Sea Surface Temperature Trends Across Datasets” Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 11 Jul, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Climate Change → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5493841","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Analysis","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":409733330,"identity":"21b0369f-d91f-4d50-9889-1fa9bd964b02","order_by":0,"name":"Sofia 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