Long-term Trend in Infant Mortality in India: A Joinpoint Regression Analysis for 1981-2018

Infant mortality rate (IMR) in India remains high by international standards. India accounts for largest number of global infant deaths. This study analyses the trend in IMR in India over almost four decades beginning 1981 through 2018. The analysis is based on the official estimates of IMR available through sample registration system. Long-term trend in IMR is analysed by using joinpoint regression analysis which reveals that the trend in IMR in India changed four times during the period 1981-2018 and the trend has been different for different states of the country. The annual proportionate decrease in IMR was the most rapid during 1985-92 in the country and in most of its states but slowed down considerably during the period 1992-99. The significant deceleration in the decrease in IMR during 1992-99 appears to be the result of the policy shift in the delivery of maternal and child health services. Had the decrease in IMR not decelerated during 1992-99, the IMR in India would have been decreased to less than 20 by 2018.