Pinpointing Amazon forest tipping in global warming and deforestation pathways

Pinpointing Amazon forest tipping in global warming and deforestation pathways | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Biological Sciences - Article Pinpointing Amazon forest tipping in global warming and deforestation pathways Nico Wunderling, Boris Sakschewski, Johan Rockström, Bernardo Flores, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5840795/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 06 May, 2026 Read the published version in Nature → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Humanity is putting unprecedented pressures on the Amazon forest systems due to global warming, deforestation, land-use change as well as large-scale infrastructure projects. Since the Amazon forest may possess a tipping point beyond which detrimental changes are self-propelling, these pressures could lead to system-wide state changes across major parts of the Amazon forest. We apply a dynamical systems model to assess the tipping risks and cascading transitions in the Amazon forest systems under different shared socio-economic emission and land-use change pathways (SSPs). For these emission scenarios, we constructed the according atmospheric moisture transports within the Amazon forest using a state-of-the-art moisture tracking model. Without deforestation, we find a critical threshold of 3.7-4.0°C of global warming where adaptive capacities of the forest may be surpassed such that around a third of the Amazon forest loses stability. However, when taking into account deforestation, our simulations robustly find a near system-wide tipping point of the Amazon forest (62-77% of the area) between 1.5-1.9°C of global warming and deforestation between 22-28%. These are values that humanity may reach already within the first half of this century, and possibly as early as in the 2030ies. Importantly, the large majority of the observed tipping events in our model (87-99%) are caused by knock-on effects from increasing drought intensities, leading to long-ranging and self-propelling cascading effects on scales of hundreds to thousands of kilometres. Overall, our results underscore the necessity to keep global warming to below 1.5°C as well as stop deforestation (around 15%) and restore these areas to avoid high tipping risks across the Amazon forest. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files supplement.pdf Supplementary Information of Pinpointing Amazon forest tipping in global warming and deforestation pathways Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 06 May, 2026 Read the published version in Nature → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5840795","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Biological Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":412293377,"identity":"164510b6-f982-4549-849c-b8495639eea4","order_by":0,"name":"Nico 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Since the Amazon forest may possess a tipping point beyond which detrimental changes are self-propelling, these pressures could lead to system-wide state changes across major parts of the Amazon forest. We apply a dynamical systems model to assess the tipping risks and cascading transitions in the Amazon forest systems under different shared socio-economic emission and land-use change pathways (SSPs). For these emission scenarios, we constructed the according atmospheric moisture transports within the Amazon forest using a state-of-the-art moisture tracking model. Without deforestation, we find a critical threshold of 3.7-4.0°C of global warming where adaptive capacities of the forest may be surpassed such that around a third of the Amazon forest loses stability. However, when taking into account deforestation, our simulations robustly find a near system-wide tipping point of the Amazon forest (62-77% of the area) between 1.5-1.9°C of global warming and deforestation between 22-28%. These are values that humanity may reach already within the first half of this century, and possibly as early as in the 2030ies. Importantly, the large majority of the observed tipping events in our model (87-99%) are caused by knock-on effects from increasing drought intensities, leading to long-ranging and self-propelling cascading effects on scales of hundreds to thousands of kilometres. 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