Future tree survival in European natural forests depends on understorey diversity

Climate change heavily threatens forest ecosystems worldwide and there is urgent need to understand what controls tree survival and forests stability. There is evidence that biodiversity can enhance ecosystem stability 1,2 , however it remains largely unclear whether this also holds for climate change and what aspects of biodiversity might be most important.Here we apply machine learning to outputs of a flexible-trait Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to unravel the effects of enhanced functional tree trait diversity and its sub-components on climate-change resistance of temperate forests (video abstract).We find that functional tree trait diversity enhances forest resistance. We explain this with 1. stronger complementarity effects (~25% importance) especially improving the survival of smaller trees up to +16.8% (±1.6%) and 2. environmental and competitive filtering of trees better adapted to future climate (40%-87% importance).We conclude that functionally diverse forests better resist and adapt to future conditions. In this context, we especially highlight the role of functionally diverse understoreys as they provide the fundament for better survival of young trees and filtering of resistant trees in the future.