Ecological Risk Identification Based on the Supply and Demand Relationship of Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region

Ecological Risk Identification Based on the Supply and Demand Relationship of Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Ecological Risk Identification Based on the Supply and Demand Relationship of Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Xuemei Wei, Abudukeyimu Abulizi, Le Yuan, Junxia Wang, Shaojie Bai, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6393059/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 05 Aug, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Due to the rapid urbanization and global climate change, arid and semi-arid regions are becoming more vulnerable to the growing disparity between the supply and demand for ecosystem services. This study focuses on the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) and examines four key ecosystem services: water yield (WY), soil retention (SR), carbon sequestration (CS), and food production (FP). Using the InVEST model, geographic information system (GIS) spatial analysis, and statistical methods, we quantify the supply-demand dynamics of these ecosystem services and identify the risk classification of ecosystem service supply-demand (ESSD) using the Self-Organizing Feature Map (SOFM) method. The results reveal significant spatial differentiation in the ESSD across Xinjiang. High-supply areas are primarily located in river valleys and along water systems, while high-demand regions are concentrated in the central cities of oases. WY and SR exhibit large deficit areas that are gradually expanding, whereas CS and FP have smaller deficit areas that are contracting. By integrating supply-demand ratios and trend indices, we identify four distinct clusters in the study area: B1 (WY-CS high-risk cluster), B2 (comprehensive high-risk cluster), B3 (comprehensive low-risk cluster), and B4 (WY high-risk cluster), with B4 being the dominant cluster, accounting for 46.2% of the total area. Based on the ESSD risk classification, we propose tailored ecological management recommendations for each cluster. This study provides a comprehensive ecological risk assessment grounded in ESSD, offering important perspectives for ecological management in arid and semi-arid regions. Biological sciences/Ecology/Ecosystem services Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences Ecosystem services Supply-demand relationship Ecological risk Ecosystem service bundle Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 05 Aug, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 14 May, 2025 Reviews received at journal 10 May, 2025 Reviews received at journal 01 May, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 May, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 30 Apr, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 30 Apr, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 17 Apr, 2025 Editor invited by journal 14 Apr, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 12 Apr, 2025 First submitted to journal 07 Apr, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6393059","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":450559147,"identity":"5c7a3df7-eced-42a3-9be6-9374ee31752f","order_by":0,"name":"Xuemei Wei","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Xinjiang University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xuemei","middleName":"","lastName":"Wei","suffix":""},{"id":450559148,"identity":"91cef00e-3361-4617-b77e-90d20c22c471","order_by":1,"name":"Abudukeyimu Abulizi","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA+UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACCSA+AEQybAzMB8A8EJcoLTxsDGwJxGsBKeNhYOAxgLIJaJFs7zE8dKPmDg8f/5lvEpZtDHJ8NxIYPxfg0SLNc8bgcM6xZ0CHnd1sINnGYCx5I4FZegYeLXISOUAtbId52Bh7Nz4AaknccCOBjZkHnxb5N0At/4BamHkeHABqqSeoRVqCx+BwbhtQCxsPI8iWBANCWiR70goO5/YB/cLDZmwgcU7CcOaZh83S+LRIHD+8+XPOtzty8v2Hn0lLlNnI8x1PPvgZnxYGBg4DOJNZAhxPjA14NTAwsD+AMxk/EFA7CkbBKBgFIxMAAKNBSZaJr6bGAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Xinjiang University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Abudukeyimu","middleName":"","lastName":"Abulizi","suffix":""},{"id":450559149,"identity":"cf591e47-c502-497c-9f50-df9aa58bbce1","order_by":2,"name":"Le Yuan","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Xinjiang University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Le","middleName":"","lastName":"Yuan","suffix":""},{"id":450559150,"identity":"a48ec117-7ebc-4e99-8cd0-0d69ab19618a","order_by":3,"name":"Junxia Wang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Xinjiang University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Junxia","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":450559151,"identity":"589be158-867b-4737-8816-89fad7585e7a","order_by":4,"name":"Shaojie Bai","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Xinjiang University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shaojie","middleName":"","lastName":"Bai","suffix":""},{"id":450559153,"identity":"681258ed-940a-4c05-acd8-27e638ac1751","order_by":5,"name":"Shanshan Tang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Xinjiang University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shanshan","middleName":"","lastName":"Tang","suffix":""},{"id":450559156,"identity":"182539b2-eae1-44bf-9e9a-7532780581c7","order_by":6,"name":"Amanzhuli Yerkenhazi","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Xinjiang University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Amanzhuli","middleName":"","lastName":"Yerkenhazi","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-04-07 10:23:17","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6393059/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6393059/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-13026-y","type":"published","date":"2025-08-05T15:56:51+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":88814118,"identity":"5986a288-5d5c-46f0-b401-9dc3d7ee1614","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-08-11 16:07:11","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1321850,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"EcologicalRiskIdentificationBasedontheSupplyand.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6393059/v1_covered_46c4209b-a735-4cc4-bd39-f3bba840c7ca.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Ecological Risk Identification Based on the Supply and Demand Relationship of Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Ecosystem services, Supply-demand relationship, Ecological risk, Ecosystem service bundle, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6393059/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6393059/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eDue to the rapid urbanization and global climate change, arid and semi-arid regions are becoming more vulnerable to the growing disparity between the supply and demand for ecosystem services. This study focuses on the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR) and examines four key ecosystem services: water yield (WY), soil retention (SR), carbon sequestration (CS), and food production (FP). Using the InVEST model, geographic information system (GIS) spatial analysis, and statistical methods, we quantify the supply-demand dynamics of these ecosystem services and identify the risk classification of ecosystem service supply-demand (ESSD) using the Self-Organizing Feature Map (SOFM) method. The results reveal significant spatial differentiation in the ESSD across Xinjiang. High-supply areas are primarily located in river valleys and along water systems, while high-demand regions are concentrated in the central cities of oases. WY and SR exhibit large deficit areas that are gradually expanding, whereas CS and FP have smaller deficit areas that are contracting. By integrating supply-demand ratios and trend indices, we identify four distinct clusters in the study area: B1 (WY-CS high-risk cluster), B2 (comprehensive high-risk cluster), B3 (comprehensive low-risk cluster), and B4 (WY high-risk cluster), with B4 being the dominant cluster, accounting for 46.2% of the total area. Based on the ESSD risk classification, we propose tailored ecological management recommendations for each cluster. This study provides a comprehensive ecological risk assessment grounded in ESSD, offering important perspectives for ecological management in arid and semi-arid regions.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Ecological Risk Identification Based on the Supply and Demand Relationship of Ecosystem Services: A Case Study of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-05-06 17:47:36","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6393059/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-05-14T04:30:38+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-05-10T06:57:58+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-05-01T08:18:34+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"111708136796704722510026249295309151810","date":"2025-05-01T06:01:05+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"239174454421535072023623856208417332852","date":"2025-04-30T13:33:30+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-04-30T13:17:02+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-04-17T18:18:14+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2025-04-14T18:13:19+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-04-12T08:36:33+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Scientific Reports","date":"2025-04-07T10:12:14+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"dfd84b16-9882-4c4b-9e38-823085f38ae3","owner":[],"postedDate":"May 6th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[{"id":47940172,"name":"Biological sciences/Ecology/Ecosystem services"},{"id":47940173,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-08-11T16:00:39+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-6393059","link":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-13026-y","journal":{"identity":"scientific-reports","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Scientific Reports"},"publishedOn":"2025-08-05 15:56:51","publishedOnDateReadable":"August 5th, 2025"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-05-06 17:47:36","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1038/s41598-025-13026-y","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-13026-y","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6393059","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6393059","identity":"rs-6393059","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}