Strong Disparities in Projected Ecotoxicological Risks from Pharmaceuticals in German Rivers: Implications for the 2050 EU’s Zero Pollution Ambition

Strong Disparities in Projected Ecotoxicological Risks from Pharmaceuticals in German Rivers: Implications for the 2050 EU’s Zero Pollution Ambition | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Strong Disparities in Projected Ecotoxicological Risks from Pharmaceuticals in German Rivers: Implications for the 2050 EU’s Zero Pollution Ambition Shixue Wu, Wenyu Yang, Peter Krebs, Rohini Kumar This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8281305/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The European Union’s zero-pollution ambition targets a toxic-free environment by 2050, but an aging population and a warming climate increase disease prevalence and pharmaceutical use, leaving future pollution levels and the route to this goal uncertain. Using a node-link model informed by Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios, we projected concentrations of five pharmaceuticals and their ecological risks to three aquatic species in 1 km river stretches across Saxony, Germany, by the 2050s. Signal-to-noise ratios ranged from 4.49 ± 1.30 (carbamazepine) to 7.68 ± 2.22 (ciprofloxacin), showing an agreement across 15 climate models. Under SSP5–8.5, median pharmaceutical concentrations varied from −98% (sulfamethoxazole) to 192% (gabapentin) without policy intervention in pharmaceutical prescribing, and from −60% (carbamazepine) to −23% (metformin) with stringent intervention, relative to the 2010s baseline. Rivers under at-risk toxicity from pharmaceutical mixtures increased by 7.7% (algae) to 12.4% (daphnia) without intervention, but decreased by 6.5% (daphnia) to 6.8% (fish) with intervention. To reach no-harm targets for the ecosystem from pharmaceutical mixtures at the moderate-risk, 21% (with intervention) to 33% (without intervention) of wastewater treatment plants require full upgrades for all pharmaceuticals. This study consolidates knowledge on the gaps to EU’s zero-pollution goals amid socioeconomic and hydroclimatic changes. pharmaceutical pollution node-link network model mixture toxicity future projection zero pollution ambition German river Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files supportinginfomationcompressed.pdf Supporting Information for “Strong Disparity in Projected Ecotoxicological Risk from Pharmaceuticals in German Rivers: Implications for 2050 EU’s Zero Pollution Ambition” Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8281305","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":555391937,"identity":"e3d3bcda-9937-46d7-a6de-d02a32326a55","order_by":0,"name":"Shixue Wu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAw0lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACCcYGCIO9geEDAwMzKVp4DjDOIFILnJFApBb52c1t0jwVDIkbbr4xbPzBYC1HUIvBnYPNxjxngFpu5xg2SDCkGxPWIpHY+Ji3jSEXqMX8gQHD4cQGgg6bkdhwmPcfUMvNM4YNCQyH6wlqYbgBsqUBqOUGj2HDAYbDCYQddiOx2XDOMYn6mWfSChsbDNINiXBY+jOJNzU2xnzHD29s/FFhLU/QFiiAxY4BsRpGwSgYBaNgFOAFAAyZPaUYrxy1AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"","institution":"Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ; 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